[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020512
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED NOV 02 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS NOTED S OF 10N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 2N-10N.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W S OF 16N MOVING W 15 KT.
WEAK SIGNATURE CURVATURE WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
100 NM OF 13N BETWEEN THIS WAVE AND THE E ATLC WAVE FROM
40W-48W.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W/74W S OF 20N MOVING
W 5-10 KT. WAVE IS TO THE E OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR
15N74W. SCATTERED MODERATED/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF
13N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA 72W-76W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 6N29W 7N45W 10N61W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM
20W-26W AND FROM 1N-9N BETWEEN 26W-35W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF 4.5N
FROM 4W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH MOVING FROM OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAIN
STATES INTO THE E U.S. COVERING E MEXICO AND THE GULF N OF 19N W
OF 80W. AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER S GEORGIA/ALABAMA
AND THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF FROM A 1014 LOW
OVER S GEORGIA ACROSS THE THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE OVER APALACHEE
BAY TO A SECOND 1014 MB LOW NEAR 29N84W ALONG 24N89W THEN W TO
MEXICO JUST N OF VERACRUZ TO NEAR 20N98W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER HIGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN
AND THE BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC IS DRAWING TROPICAL
MOISTURE N ACROSS THE SE GULF OVER CUBA W OF THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. THIS IS FUELING THE WARM FRONT THAT CAME NW FROM THE W
ATLC THAT IS NOW MOVING E AS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE ALONG 26N82W TO W
CUBA NEAR 23N84W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER TEXAS AND E MEXICO
WITH A 1025 MB HIGH OVER S TEXAS IS GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF DRY AIR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SCATTERED COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THE GULF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE GULF
AND BE IN THE W ATLC LATER TODAY. MOISTURE WITH THE ACCOMPANYING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE SE GULF CLEARING BY
THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER HIGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N83W AND AN UPPER LOW IN
THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N74W CONTINUE DOMINATE THE SITUATION
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE UPPER
FEATURES AND THE ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ARE GENERATING
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION S OF 18N TO
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 77W-87W. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 73W/74W IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE UPPER
LOW OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. DIFFLUENCE N OF THE UPPER LOW AND THE
UPPER HIGH ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 66W-75W. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THEN THE NE
CARIBBEAN WILL DRY OUT SOMEWHAT AND THE REMAINDER OF THE E
CARIBBEAN WILL DRY OUT BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER HIGH IS IN THE W ATLC N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 23N62W
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NNW TO OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS TO 100 KT EXTENDS FROM OVER FLORIDA
NEAR 28N80W NE OVER BERMUDA THEN WEAKENING NEAR 27N40W AT THE
BASE OF A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...A 1027 MB HIGH
IS ENE OF BERMUDA WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO THE NE
CARIBBEAN. EMBEDDED WITHIN S FLOW TO THE W OF THE UPPER HIGH IS
A 1012 MB OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 29N79W WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SSW ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING E TO 29N70W. THIS DEVELOPED FROM THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OF LAST NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N W OF 66W TO THE E U.S. COAST. DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE E ATLC THROUGH 32N34W SW TO
24N40W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR
32N28W EXTENDING SW TO 25N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 27N. AN
UPPER HIGH IN THE E ATLC IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA
NEAR 24N18W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NE OUT OF THE REGION OVER THE
CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
WALLACE


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