[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020008
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE NOV 01 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.  SOME CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION EXCEPT ALONG THE ITCZ.

ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-15N
BETWEEN 43W-49W.

CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS JUST W
OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N74W PRODUCING SHEAR ON THE WAVE.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 68W-72W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 7N20W 4N30W 3N40W 5N50W 6N56W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN
15W-20W...AND FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 23W-34W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 39W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1015 MB LOW IS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W.  A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO ALONG
26N90W 22N98W 23N101W MOVING SE.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
90 NM OF THE FRONT.  A WEAK WARM FRONT IS OVER S FLORIDA ALONG
28N80W 24N84W MOVING N.  PATCHES OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W CUBA FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN
82W-84W...AND ALONG THE COAST OF S FLORIDA FROM 25N-26N BETWEEN
81W-82W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO EXCEPT FOR THE THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO TRAVERSE THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO AND
FLORIDA AND BE IN THE W ATLANTIC WITHIN 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH COOL NORTHERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL OVER
THE GULF IN 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TROPICAL WAVE AND THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING CONVECTION S OF HISPANIOLA AS MENTIONED
IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION.  THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ALSO
ENHANCING THE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER N
COLOMBIA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 73W-77W.  FURTHER W...CLUSTERS OF
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO CUBA BETWEEN 77W-87W.  EXPECT THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO TRAVERSE THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND EXTEND FROM E CUBA TO HONDURAS IN 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE MOVING W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK WARM FRONT IS DRIFTING N OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 28N70W
29N75W 28N80W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
FRONT.  A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N31W
26N45W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF FRONT.  A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES W ALONG 25N50W 24N60W 28N70W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS N OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 23N60W.  AN 80-100 KT JETSTREAM WITH
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS GOING AROUND THIS CIRCULATION FROM THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO S FLORIDA TO 30N70W 26N50W.  AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-50W.
FURTHER E AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS
AT 30N16W.

$$
FORMOSA



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