[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 011803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE NOV 01 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS ON TOP OF
THIS WAVE. STRATIFORM CLOUDS ARE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE AREA OF THE WAVE. SOME POSSIBLY MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS
HAVE A HINT OF CYCLONIC TURNING TO THEM. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
WHAT WE HAVE ANALYZED AS A WAVE MAY NOT HAVE AS GOOD A SATELLITE
REPRESENTATION TO IT AS THAT WHICH WAS ASSIGNED TO IT YESTERDAY.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 9N TO 15N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/71W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14.5N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ALSO ARE FOUND FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN
66W AND 70W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER WHICH HAS BEEN
HANGING AROUND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS NOW IS
NEAR 14N74W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW
CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N TO 21N BETWEEN 66W AND 78W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W/88W SOUTH OF 15N FROM WESTERN
HONDURAS SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
DIRECTLY RELATED TO THIS WAVE.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 10N14W 7N20W 4N30W 3N40W 5N50W 6N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN GENERAL FROM 3N TO 10N
EAST OF 34W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN
34W AND 39W...AND FROM 7N TO 16N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BASE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE
WESTERN GULF WATERS. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT WHICH NOW PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHERN
ALABAMA TO 28N90W TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 25N97.5W
TO 26N102W IN MEXICO. DRY AIR IS WEST OF 30N87W 25N92W 22N97W
22N103W. ANOTHER BAND OF DRY AIR IS WITHIN 90 TO 180 NM WEST
OF 28N83W 24N85W 19N90W. A WARM FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS FLORIDA
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND RUNS FROM 24N83W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF WATERS OVER FLORIDA BEYOND 27N80W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
30 TO 60 NM EAST OF THE 28N83W 19N90W LINE OF DRY AIR.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/71W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14.5N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W
AND 75W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ALSO ARE FOUND FROM 14N TO
16N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER
WHICH HAS BEEN HANGING AROUND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE LAST
FEW DAYS NOW IS NEAR 14N74W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS LOW CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N TO 21N BETWEEN
66W AND 78W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER STILL IS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUES TO PUSH UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA...WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 16N WEST
OF 80W ARE TAKING PLACE IN BROAD SURFACE TROUGH IN THE ISOBARIC
PATTERN SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN POINT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WARM FRONT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 11N76W 14N81W IN SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW AND
BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER IS NEAR 22N63W.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
NORTH OF 21N BETWEEN THE 32N40W 24N46W TROUGH AND 80W.
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 30N45W TO 24N46W.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE ATLANTIC COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES
THROUGH 30N37W TO 25N50W TO 25N58W. DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
25N58W TO 25N65W. DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT 25N65W TO 28N71W.
WARM FRONT 28N71W TO 28N76W TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR
27N80W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS MOSTLY FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 50W
AND 70W...BUT POSSIBLY ALSO NORTH OF 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 58W AND
70W. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N19W TO 25N29W TO 23N43W
TO 22N58W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF THE COLD/WARM
FRONT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER IS NEAR 25N28W. A RIDGE
GOES FROM 25N28W BEYOND THE MADEIRA ISLANDS.

$$
MT


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