[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011113
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE NOV 01 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WAVE IS BENEATH A WEAK TROPICAL JET PARTIALLY MASKING THE
SATELLITE SIGNATURE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS CONFINED
TO WITHIN THE ITCZ WITHIN 120 NM OF THE THE AXIS FROM 32W-36W.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE WAS REPOSITIONED SLIGHTLY BASED ON
SATELLITE SIGNATURE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG 42W S OF 15N
MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH THE LEADING EDGE OF A WEAK
TROPICAL JET PARTIALLY MASKING THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE N OF 11N.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF 14N FROM 37W-43W.

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15
KT. WAVE IS TO THE E OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 15N74W.
SCATTERED MODERATED/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-22N
BETWEEN 68W-74W INCLUDING HISPANIOLA AND THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS.

CENTRAL AMERICAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW IN THE E PACIFIC REGION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N11W 6N23W 11N48W 8N61W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE
AXIS FROM 10W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAIN
STATES AND MEXICO EXTENDING INTO THE GULF N OF 23N W OF 88W.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF OVER W LOUISIANA NEAR
30N93W SW INTO TEXAS BETWEEN  CORPUS CHRISTI AND BROWNSVILLE
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE
SE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W ALONG 26N94W BETWEEN
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND TAMPICO MEXICO. AN UPPER HIGH IN THE W
CARIBBEAN AND THE BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N ACROSS THE SE
GULF OVER CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF OVER S FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS S OF 25N E OF 87W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS
UNDER DRY AIR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE W
ATLC EXTENDS TO OVER THE NE GULF. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE N GULF AND BE IN THE W ATLC
BY WED. MOISTURE WITH THE ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN IN THE SE GULF CLEARING BY THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER HIGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N81W AND AN UPPER LOW IN
THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N74W DOMINATE THE SITUATION ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN. DIFFLUENCE W OF THE UPPER HIGH WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS NE TO
ACROSS CUBA W OF 81W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING A LINE OF
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N78.5W TO
15.5N81.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S
OF 10N TO INLAND OVER PANAMA W OF 81W TO THE BORDER OF COSTA
RICA. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 70W IS
BEING ENHANCED BY THE UPPER LOW OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WHILE THE NE CARIBBEAN WILL DRY OUT SOMEWHAT. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
ITCZ AXIS PULLS N ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER HIGH IS IN THE W ATLC N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 24N65W
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING N TO OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS TO 100 KT EXTENDS FROM OVER S FLORIDA
NEAR 26N80W NE OVER BERMUDA THEN WEAKENING NEAR 27N51W AT THE
BASE OF A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...A 1027 MB HIGH
IS NW OF BERMUDA WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SE INTO THE NE
GULF. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS N OF 25N
BETWEEN 37W-54W. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR
32N37W EXTENDING SW TO 26N53W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO
26N67W THEN PULLS N AS A WARM FRONT ALONG 27N73W ACROSS THE N
BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N79W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 27N WITH OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 225 NM N OF THE
WARM FRONT. THE UPPER HIGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE TO THE
E...S OF THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC TO 20N48W.
AN UPPER HIGH IN THE E ATLC IS CENTERED NEAR 26N25W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING NE OUT OF THE REGION NEAR 32N18W. THIS HAS VIRTUALLY
DRIED OUT THE E ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK 1023 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 31N16W. WEAK TROPICAL JET
EXTENDS ALONG 14N/15W FROM 44W TO OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
WALLACE



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