[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 010603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE NOV 01 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15
KT. WAVE IS BENEATH A WEAK TROPICAL JET PARTIALLY MASKING THE
SATELLITE SIGNATURE. CONVECTION CONFINED TO WITHIN THE ITCZ.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W S OF 15N MOVING W
10 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH THE START OF A WEAK TROPICAL JET
PARTIALLY MASKING THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 33W-42W.

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W/69W S OF 19N MOVING W 15
KT. WAVE IS TO THE E OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 15N73W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE ABC
ISLANDS S TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA FROM 68W-71W.

CENTRAL AMERICAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W S OF 14N MOVING W 15
KT. WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE INLAND OVER HONDURAS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 7N22W 8N37W 9N49W 8N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120
NM OF THE AXIS FROM 50W-54W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE
FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 10W-37W INCLUDING THE COAST OF AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAIN
STATES EXTENDING INTO THE GULF N OF 24N W OF 90W. ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS WITH WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL COAST OF
LOUISIANA NEAR 30N92W ALONG 27N94W TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC
DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N ACROSS THE AREA FROM CUBA TO THE
YUCATAN... AND WITH THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 25N E OF 86W INCLUDING S
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER
DRY AIR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE W ATLC
EXTENDS TO OVER THE NE GULF. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
RAPIDLY ACROSS THE N GULF AND BE IN THE W ATLC BY WED. MOISTURE
WITH THE ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
SE GULF UNTIL THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER HIGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N83W AND AN UPPER LOW IN
THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N73W DOMINATE THE SITUATION ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN. DIFFLUENCE W OF THE UPPER HIGH IS GENERATING CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM THE GULF
OF HONDURAS NE TO ACROSS W CUBA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING A
LINE OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 16N80.5W
12N78.5W TO OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W. ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORM IS ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 81W. N OF THE
UPPER LOW...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 16N TO ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND HISPANIOLA. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHILE THE E CARIBBEAN WILL DRY OUT
SOMEWHAT. BY WED...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SE
CARIBBEAN AS THE ITCZ AXIS PULLS N ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER HIGH IS IN THE W ATLC E OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N67W
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING N TO OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS TO 100 KT EXTENDS FROM OVER S FLORIDA
ALONG 31N70W WEAKENING NEAR 29N55W AT THE BASE OF A DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...A 1027 MB HIGH IS OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SE INTO THE NE
GULF. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS N OF 26N
BETWEEN 40W-60W. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR
32N41W EXTENDING SW TO 27N53W WHERE IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE TO
25N68W THEN PULLS N AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL BAHAMAS
NEAR 24N76W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 23N79W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT WITH OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 250 NM N OF THE WARM FRONT. THE UPPER HIGH IN THE W ATLC
EXTENDS A RIDGE TO THE E...S OF THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC TO 22N53W. AN UPPER HIGH IN THE E ATLC IS CENTERED
NEAR 28N25W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NNE TO E OF THE AZORES. THIS
HAS DRIED OUT THE E ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK 1024 IS
CENTERED E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 30N22W. WEAK TROPICAL JET
EXTENDS ALONG 16N FROM 42W ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO THE
COAST OF AFRICA.

$$
WALLACE


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