[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 010035
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E ATLC ALONG 30W/31W S OF 12N MOVING W 20
KT.  THE WAVE IS LOCATED WITHIN AN AREA OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND DIFFLUENCE.  AS SUCH...CONVECTION IS RATHER ACTIVE
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 6N-10N
BETWEEN 26W-30W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
3N-10N BETWEEN 30W-37W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 49W S OF 12N MOVING W
20 KT OR ABOUT 8 DEG/DAY. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
SWATH OF AFRICAN DUST WITH ENHANCED ELY TRADEWINDS. THIS
ENVIRONMENT IS ACTING TO SUPPRESS THE WAVE'S SATELLITE
SIGNATURE.  NONETHELESS...THE WAVE LOCATION IS SUPPORTED BY
ENHANCED ITCZ CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ACTIVITY FROM
7N-10N BETWEEN 45W-50W. MOISTURE FROM THE WAVE WILL ENTER THE SE
CARIBBEAN LATE WED INTO THU BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN NEAR JAMAICA ALONG 78W S OF 20N
MOVING W 15-20 KT OR ABOUT 7 DEG/DAY.   WAVE POSITION IS BASED
ON EXTRAPOLATION WITH LITTLE SATELLITE PRESENTATION.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 89W S OF 18N MOVING W
10 KT OR ABOUT 4 DEG/DAY. MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS WAVE IS S
OF THE AREA OVER THE EPAC WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IN
THE AREA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 6N21W 8N45W 7N60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE GLFMEX AND FLORIDA
COURTESY OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST SE OF LOUISIANA
AND ATTENDANT STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SE UNITED STATES ALONG
31N/32N.  THE MID/UPPER LOW IGNITED A STRONG CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
YESTERDAY WHICH PROPAGATED EWD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
EARLY THIS MORNING.  RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS AND RAIN COOLED AIR
KEPT AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS AT BAY OVER MUCH OF THE STATE.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG SHOWERS/TSTMS IS CURRENTLY
FORMING OVER THE N CENTRAL GLFMEX WITHIN THE STRONGLY DIFFLUENT
REGION JUST E OF THE UPPER LOW.  SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN
OVERALL MOVEMENT TOWARD THE ESE AND THIS AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
MAY AFFECT FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT.  EXPECT PERIODS OF SQUALLS
ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THIS AREA
OF CONVECTION.  THEREAFTER...THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO LIFT NEWD ON WED SHIFTING THE MAIN LIFT/DYNAMICS
NWD OVER THE NE GLFMEX AND N FLORIDA.  THUS...SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY AT ANY TIME FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE NWD MAINLY
E OF 88W.   FURTHER S...ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
WITH DEEP LAYERED SLY FLOW AND AN ALREADY MOIST ATMOSPHERE
KEEPING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ABOVE AVERAGE...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...OVER THE SE GLFMEX AND THE S HALF
OF FLORIDA. W OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CONFLUENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRYING WILL PRODUCE TRANQUIL WEATHER
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO

CARIBBEAN...
A WELL-DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM PANAMA NWD OVER W CUBA. FURTHER E...A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC SWD INTO E
CARIBBEAN FROM THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS TO N VENEZUELA. THIS
PATTERN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CONFLUENCE RESULTING IN SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL TO E CARIBBEAN.
DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE S OF 12N WITH AN ACTIVE
ITCZ COUPLED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA THROUGH
NICARAGUA.  FURTHER W...DEEP-LAYERED SLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ENHANCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  ELSEWHERE...HAZY SKIES ASSOCIATED
WITH AFRICAN DUST WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN...ESPECIALLY E OF 75W.  NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE/WET AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS OVER THE AREA AND THE
UPPER FLOW REGIME BECOME MORE DIFFLUENT.

ATLANTIC...
EARLIER LINE OF STRONG SHOWERS/TSTMS WHICH MOVED FROM FLORIDA
INTO THE W ATLC THIS MORNING HAS SINCE DIMINISHED WITH THE BULK
OF THE CLOUDINESS AND REMNANT SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY POLEWARD OF
A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N70W TO 30N75W INTO SE GEORGIA. A
SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FORMING OVER THE E GLFMEX
WHICH MAY PROPAGATE ACROSS FLORIDA TONIGHT POSSIBLY AFFECTING
THE W ATLC EARLY WED.  THEREAFTER...THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
SHOULD SERVE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AS MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EMANATES FROM THE GLFMEX NEWD ACROSS N
FLORIDA.  ELSEWHERE OVER THE W ATLC...AMPLE DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ASSIST TYPICAL
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE BAHAMAS.  LOOKING UPSTREAM....A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING OFF THE NE UNITED STATES COAST
IS FORECAST DIVE SEWD CARVING OUT A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH
PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL
DRIVE THE NOW STATIONARY FRONT SWD ON WED ENTERING THE AREA OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC EARLY THU WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.  IN THE E ATLC... MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM SPAIN SWD ALONG 30N35W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 20N40W. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY LIFTING NWD WHILE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN ITS WAKE FROM AFRICA
WESTWARD ALONG 10N.
TO 40W.  UPPER DIFFLUENCE NEAR THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS
ASSISTING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE ALONG 30W/31W.  THIS
WAVE SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE AS THE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD.  AT THE
SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE W
HALF OF THE ATLC WITH A WELL-DEFINED AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING
FROM THE AZORES SWD TO 28N50W TO S FLORIDA. THIS PATTERN IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE BULK OF THE
AREA.  HOWEVER...THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN LATER IN THE WEEK AS
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC.
FINALLY...AN EXPANSIVE PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST SPANS THE ENTIRE
LENGTH OF THE ATLC AND CARIBBEAN...GENERALLY S OF 25N TO THE
ITCZ.

$$
RHOME


WWWW
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