[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271758
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 24W/25W SOUTH OF
14N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W...NOT SHOWING
MUCH ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 45W/46W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. THIS WAVE SHOWS UP IN THE LOW CLOUD MOVEMENTS IN THE
VISIBLE IMAGERY...MINUS DEEP THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 18N61W 14N63W 10N64W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 16N
BETWEEN 63W AND 66W...AND FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 60W AND 62W.
OTHER SHOWERS ARE SPREAD ALSO ELSEWHERE EAST OF 63W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND ALSO FROM 15N TO
19N NEAR PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 66W AND 71W. NOT ALL THESE AREAS
OF PRECIPITATION MAY NOT BE RELATED TO THE WAVE

SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE SOUTH OF 15N ALONG
80W/81W MOVING WEST 10 KT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CORNER SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN COLOMBIA
NEAR 76W AND PANAMA NEAR 80W. THE ITCZ IS CLOSE TO THIS AREA
ALSO.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 11N15W 9N23W...9N26W 8N43W...8N47W 9N60W 10N63W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N
TO 8N BETWEEN 40W AND 43W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
AND LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE OVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...NOT WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...FROM 2N TO 10N
EAST OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN NOW HAS MOVED INTO MEXICO MORE AND MORE...FROM
18N TO 32N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W. A FEW INDIVIDUAL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERS ARE IN THIS ONE LARGER AREA OF CYCLONIC
FLOW. BROAD AND JUST GENERAL MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
WIND FLOW MOVES AWAY FROM MEXICO INTO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A GOOD PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO STILL IS
COVERED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF WATERS SOUTH OF
THE SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST...AND ALONG THE MEXICO COAST
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT RUNS FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N87W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WHICH HAS BEEN EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO IS NOW MORE AND MORE LESS WELL DEFINED IN
THE GULF WATERS...PULLING OUT OF THE AREA AND BECOMING MORE
WELL DEFINED FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NORTHWARD.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 31N45W TO
23N55W 16N66W TO THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS COVER THE PART WEST OF 80W...WHILE MODERATE SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY AIR PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA...AND ANOTHER ONE IS MOVING WESTWARD
THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. A SOMEWHAT SEPARATE
AREA OF ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVERS THE
WATERS FROM 15N TO 19N NEAR PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 66W AND 71W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N68W TO THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. SOME MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE
SURROUNDS THIS TROUGH NORTHWEST OF 21N75W 28N62W BEYOND 32N58W.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE SURFACE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THROUGH
32N60W TO 30N62W TO 26N71W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 26N71W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N87W. THE NEXT FEATURE
IS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 31N45W TO 23N55W TO 16N66W IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EAST OF THE
RIDGE THROUGH 32N30W TO 24N32W TO 14N37W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS
UNDER THIS TROUGH...FROM A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
38N36W TO 32N40W TO 27N50W TO 24N60W.

$$
MT


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