[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 251807 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED 25 MAY 2005

CORRECTION TO THE SECTIONS ABOUT TROPICAL WAVES AND THE ITCZ

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 13N19W 9N21W 5N21W
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
7N TO 9N BETWEEN 16W AND 18W. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 24W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THIS WAVE.

SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 12N52W 10N55W
6N56W MOVING WEST 10 KT. LOW CLOUDS ARE ROTATING CYCLONICALLY
AROUND THIS WAVE IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COAST OF
BRAZIL TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE SOUTH OF 14N ALONG 72W/73W IS
MOVING WEST 10 KT. IT IS NOT EASY TO IDENTIFY ANY DEEP
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...OR LOW CLOUD
MOVEMENTS...WITH THIS WAVE.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 11N14W 10N19W...10N23W 10N23W 10N33W 10N40W 9N52W...
10N56W 9N63W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND
LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE...NOT
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 29W AND
38W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE LARGE SCALE PICTURE SHOWS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW WEST OF 96W...WITH A CENTER NEAR 26N104W IN CENTRAL
MEXICO. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EVEN EXTENDS NEAR 120W IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. THE REST OF THE GULF WATERS IS COVERED BY MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THANKS TO A NORTHEAST-TO-
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER SCALE FLOW...PUSHING ITS WAY
FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS.
THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH RUNS FROM
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 32N69W TO 30N72W TO THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST NEAR 28N...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WATERS NEAR 28N85W...
TO 30N90W. STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N90W IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
EVENTUALLY INTO EAST TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE IN
A CLUSTER FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W DURING THE LAST
SIX HOURS...MOST RECENTLY WITH WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
AND PROBABLY DECREASING PRECIPITATION. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION IN GENERAL NORTH
OF 28N92W 27N85W 27N80W. 1011 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER JUST OFF
THE WESTERN COAST OF CUBA...FORECAST TO DISSIPATE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 19N76W IN BETWEEN
HAITI...CUBA...AND JAMAICA...FORECAST TO DISSIPATE DURING THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL
CELLS FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 72W AND 73W IN SOUTHERN HAITI
AND NEARBY WATERS. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND
DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION WITH THE ACTIVITY WHICH HAS BEEN
MOVING THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.
A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM FAR AWAY IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH 30N32W TO 22N50W 19N60W TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE
1010 MB LOW CENTER...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE LOW
CENTER TO CENTRAL JAMAICA AND 17N79W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA
NEAR 16N TO 22N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
16N56W 13N59W 10N62W ARE WEST OF THE APPROACHING 12N52W 10N55W
6N56W TROPICAL WAVE. LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...WHERE SOME CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE
U.S.A.-TO-GULF OF MEXICO MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS
PUSHED ITS WAY INTO THE PICTURE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PART OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC OCEAN IS COVERED BY THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WHICH IS SUPPORTING THE ATLANTIC-TO-GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT.
THE REST OF THE AREA OF NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 45W IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF BROAD LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...
WHICH ALSO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH SPANS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 30N32W TO 25N40W TO 22N50W 20N55W 19N60W
20N66W TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE 1010 MB LOW CENTER.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM
20N TO 27N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W...AND WITHIN 90 TO 120 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 32N24W 27N27W 24N30W. SOME
SHOWERS STILL MAY BE HOLDING TOGETHER JUST WEST OF BERMUDA
FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SUPPORTS THE ATLANTIC-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH...
THROUGH 32N28W TO 27N32W TO 22N40W.

$$
MT

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