[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 211104 AAA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...AMENDED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT 21 MAY 2005

AMENDED FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SW CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 27W/28W SOUTH OF 15N...MOVING AWAY FROM
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO
10N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...AND FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 22W AND
26W. AN NORTH-SOUTH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG THE WEST AFRICA
COAST. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE SHEARING THE CLOUD TOPS BETWEEN
AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS ALONG 46W/47W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.
SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN
46W AND 50W. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM THE
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S TO 1N BETWEEN 46W AND 50W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 74W/75W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN FROM LAKE MARACAIBO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF VENEZUELA.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ 10N14W 8N20W 7N26W...6N29W 5N36W 5N44W...5N47W 4N56W. MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS CONCENTRATED NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVES.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N61W
8N56W 8N47W 8N40W 8N32W 10N23W 11N14W AT THE COAST OF AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1013 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N94W. WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS IN THE GULF WATERS. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES FROM
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH HAD BEEN SEEN SIX HOURS
EARLIER FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN GEORGIA AND EASTERN LOUISIANA...
HAVE WARMED AND NOW ARE SEEN MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
AND ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 29N92W 30N86W 29N83W
BEYOND 32N77W. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS SOUTHEAST OF 26N80W
22N90W 20N93W. LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
MOVES FROM CENTRAL AMERICA...IN THE AREA FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO COSTA RICA/PANAMA. LARGE SCALE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF WATERS WEST OF 91W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...FROM A TROUGH WHICH RUNS
FROM SOUTH CAROLINA/EASTERN GEORGIA INTO THE EASTERN GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD AND MOIST MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
CONTINUES TO PUSH MOISTURE ACROSS AREAS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.
IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER AREAS THAT RECENTLY
HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE WAKE OF ADRIAN. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER
PARTS OF GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR...HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA.
UPPER LEVEL EAST/WEST HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA BEGINNING IN ABOUT 48 HOURS ALLOWING FOR
CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO LESSEN ACROSS THE EXTREME
EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS AND CENTRAL AMERICA AREA. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOME CELLS ARE BETWEEN EASTERN CUBA AND
NORTHWESTERN HAITI...WITH A FEW SMALLER CELLS TRAILING
SOUTHWESTWARD TO EASTERN JAMAICA. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 15N83W 17N76W 18N72W 19N67W 20N60W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH RUNS FROM AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 24N68W TO 20N70W...
SKIRTING THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W TO 19N80W AND
EASTERN HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE SW CORNER OF THE AREA FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 80W
AND 83W...TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO BERMUDA NEAR 32N65W...CURVING TOWARD
27N48W...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH RUNS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 32N43W TO 29N42W TO 26N41W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN
THIS AREA FROM AN ATLANTIC 1008 MB SURFACE LOW CENTER NEAR
32N43W TO 25N45W TO 21N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 29N39W 27N41W 25N42W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N
BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W.

$$
MT



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