[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 201041
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI 20 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN IS INLAND OVER EL SALVADOR THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO FURTHER DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT
MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WILL BE
IN THE CARIBBEAN BY SAT. IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO RE-GENERATE INTO
A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE AT THIS TIME. SEE LATEST NHC
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC
AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W/39W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 KT.
NEARBY CONVECTION REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND CONFINED WITHIN THE
ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN AND VENEZUELA ALONG 69W S
OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS INLAND
OVER VENEZUELA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 8N21W 5N30W 5N46W 3N53W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE
FROM 2N48W ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 3S43W. LARGE
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE FROM THE COAST OF
AFRICA NEAR 7N12W 5N26W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3N51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND SE UNITED STATES ALONG 29W/30N ACROSS N FLORIDA TO
THE E COAST OF TEXAS. CLEAR SKIES PREVAILS OVER ALL BUT THE SE
GULF WHERE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN IS BEING
ADVECTED ACROSS CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO OVER S FLORIDA
BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 26N E OF 87W TO JUST S OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MID/UPPER HIGH OVER NEW MEXICO
IS MOVING TOWARDS N TEXAS WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING
E OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N E OF 91W. A SHARP MID/UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM OVER SE GEORGIA SW ACROSS THE GULF TO THE WESTERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE. CONFLUENT FLOW NW OF THE TROUGH AND CONTINENTAL
AIR ARE CREATING MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS
ALOFT. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE TROUGH WILL BECOME
STATIONARY AND REMAIN ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY THROUGH SAT. AS A
RESULT...POINTS NW OF THE CURRENT TROUGH AXIS SHOULD REMAIN
ESSENTIALLY DRY AND TRANQUIL. MEANWHILE...POINTS SE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN AND W ATLC. ...
A VERY UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN IS CURRENTLY UNFOLDING OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA COURTESY OF T.S. ADRIAN WHICH MADE
LANDFALL OVER EL SALVADOR DURING THE NIGHT. THIS STORM COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NE OUT AHEAD OF
ADRIAN PRODUCING OVERCAST CLOUDS WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN TODAY ESPECIALLY WITHIN 250/300 NM OF
LINE FROM E HONDURAS ACROSS CUBA INCLUDING JAMAICA AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD TO OVER THE BAHAMAS LATER
TODAY. A 1006 MB LOW IS N OF THE MONA PASSAGE/PUERTO RICO NEAR
24N67W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS E HISPANIOLA TO
17N72W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH MEAN AXIS ALONG 67W INTO THE
W ATLC COVERING THE AREA W OF 43W. SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS TO
100 KT EXTENDS AROUND THE N PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM THE SE
GULF ACROSS FLORIDA ALONG 30N65W TO 29N60W. THE JET IS CREATING
A HIGHLY DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. CLUSTERS
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE FROM THE TIP
OF HONDURAS/NICARAGUA TO E CUBA AND WITHIN 120 NM OF 20N FROM
54W-70W. THIS DIFFLUENT FLOW WILL ACT TO FOCUS SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE MORNING AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ADRIAN CONTINUES
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

ATLANTIC...
A 1009 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 29N46W WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW ALONG 23N49W TO 17N58W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING OVER THE W ATLC IS MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC S OF 32N W OF 43W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER
THE NW ATLC N OF 32N W OF 40W. DIFFLUENCE NEAR 30N/31N E OF THE
SURFACE LOW IS GENERATING OVERALL CLOUDINESS WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N FROM 38W-45W. MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS N OF 7N BETWEEN 28W-43W AND A
RIDGE OVER THE FAR E ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
NNE BEYOND THE CANARY ISLANDS WITH AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED NEAR
25N20W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED BROADEN AS IT SHIFTS E TO
ENCOMPASS THE E ATLC. EXPECT THE OVERALL MOTION OF THE SURFACE
LOW N OF THE CARIBBEAN TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY N DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...HOWEVER THE CENTRAL ATLC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARDS OUT OF THE REGION. NEW SURGE OF AFRICA DUST COVERS
THE E ATLC FROM THE ITCZ TO 26N E OF 26W INCLUDING THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
WALLACE



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