[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 200007
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU 19 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE ADRIAN IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 12.9
90.3...OR 90 MILES...150 NM...SOUTHWEST OF SAN SALVADOR EL
SALVADOR...AT 19/2100 UTC MOVING NE AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 983 MB. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING STORM.
RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ADRIAN ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE S
GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR...HONDURAS...AND NICARAGUA.  EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE PUSHING NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN
GUATEMALA AND NICARAGUA PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.  IN ADDITION...DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE WILL
SURGE NEWD OUT AHEAD OF ADRIAN PRODUCING INCREASING CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME LOCALLY NUMEROUS TONIGHT AS
MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH A SHARP TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET TO THE
NW.  MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS CUBA FRIDAY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
NEARBY CONVECTION REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND CONFINED WITHIN THE
ITCZ.  AS SUCH...THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A SATELLITE
SIGNATURE AND THE CURRENT WAVE POSITION IS BASED UPON
EXTRAPOLATION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND VENEZUELA ALONG 66W S
OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
6N-8N BETWEEN 66W-68W...AND FROM 2N-12N BETWEEN 68W-72W.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15
KT. THIS WAVE IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE SINCE IT IS IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND
NEARING THE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE ADRIAN.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED PRIMARILY UPON EXTRAPOLATION.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER NICARAGUA FROM
11N-14N BETWEEN 84W-87W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N10W 6N20W 3N45W 5N60W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN
14W-24W...FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 25W-31W...AND FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN
43W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLANTIC...GULF OF MEXICO ... AND SE
UNITED STATES WITH E/W RIDGE AXIS ALONG 30N FROM N FLORIDA TO E
TEXAS.  WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE MAINLY 10 KT FROM THE
E.  FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS HOWEVER INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE FROM 30N-31N BETWEEN 84W-87W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
SHARP MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE GLFMEX FROM N  FLORIDA
TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.  W OF THE
TROUGH...CONFLUENT FLOW IS CREATING MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT.  E OF THE TROUGH...DEEP-LAYERED
MOISTURE IS STREAMING NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA CLIPPING THE
FAR SE PORTION OF THE AREA PRIMARILY ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO S FLORIDA. THIS IS CREATING STREAKS OF HIGH
CLOUDINESS OVER THE SE GULF.  SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE
TROUGH AXIS IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY SEWD.  HOWEVER...NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE TROUGH WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND
REMAIN ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY THROUGH SAT.  AS A RESULT...POINTS
N AND WEST OF THE CURRENT TROUGH AXIS SHOULD REMAIN ESSENTIALLY
DRY AND TRANQUIL.  MEANWHILE...POINTS S AND E OF THE TROUGH AXIS
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM
THE SW AND STREAKS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS.

CARIBBEAN...
A VERY UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN IS CURRENTLY UNFOLDING OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA COURTESY OF HURRICANE ADRIAN WHICH
IS APPROACHING THE PACIFIC COAST OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA.
REFER TO SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS ON
ADRIAN.  A 1004 MB LOW IS N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 23N68W.  A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW TO HONDURAS ALONG 20N75W 15N83W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE E OF THE TROUGH
AXIS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 73W-77W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH
MEAN AXIS EXTENDING E/W ALONG ROUGHLY 14N.  A SUBTROPICAL JET IN
EXCESS OF 100 KT EXTENDS AROUND THE N PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
FROM THE SE GLFMEX EWD OVER THE W ATLC ALONG 27N.  THE JET IS
CREATING A HIGHLY DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN.  THIS WILL ACT TO FOCUS SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN LATER TONIGHT AS
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ADRIAN MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
SET THE STAGE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING OVER CUBA AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS FRI.

ATLANTIC...
1004 MB LOW IS N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 23N68W.  CONVECTION E OF THE
LOW HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED HOWEVER A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ON THE NE COAST OF
HISPANIOLA FROM 19N-20N BETWEEN 67W-70W.  1007 MB LOW IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N45W.  A TROUGH EXTENDS SW TO 21N48W
17N53W.  SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE E ATLANTIC N OF 15N AND E OF
40W.  FINALLY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
AREAS OF AFRICAN DUST SPREADING WESTWARD S OF 20N TO THE ITCZ
MAINLY E OF 55W.  NEW SURGE CURRENTLY SEEN EMERGING OFF AFRICA
WITH LEADING EDGE NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N
BETWEEN 50W-80W.  A SHARP TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N
OF 5N BETWEEN 30W-50W.  AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE
E ATLANTIC NEAR 26N23W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS BETWEEN 15W-30W.  EXPECT LITTLE OVERALL MOTION OF
THE SURFACE LOW N OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
EXPECT THE LOW LOCATED NEAR 28N45W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 280 NM NE OF LOW TO LIFT SLOWLY NEWD DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


$$
FORMOSA


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