[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191038
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU 19 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 31W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 KT. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY WITHIN THE ITCZ
AND THE WAVE IS NOT VERY WELL ORGANIZED.

W ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 61W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 KT. ANY
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS WELL INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.
THIS WAVE IS LOCATED AHEAD OF THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AFRICAN
DUST SURGE.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W/82W MOVING W 10-15 KT.
THIS WAVE IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE SINCE IT IS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CARIBBEAN...THEREFORE THE
POSITION IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 7N21W 5N35W 3N48W 4N53W.
LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE WITHIN 250 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 18W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN...AND W ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SE UNITED STATES OVER ALABAMA
SW TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE AND IS ALLOWING DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE TO PUSH S OVER TEXAS AND MEXICO. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA W OF 50W. BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE W ATLC WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 29N62W THROUGH A 1005 MB LOW NE OF THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 24N68W ACROSS NW HAITI TO 17N78W IN THE N CARIBBEAN. THE
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS PANAMA IS ENHANCING THE MOISTURE
FLOW FROM THE E PACIFIC AND T.S. ADRIAN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
TO OVER THE AREA WHICH IS SURGING N ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...SE
GULF AND INTO THE ATLC WATERS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD
DIFFLUENCE PREVAILS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
AREA AND A WEAK SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE W ATLC. THIS SETUP IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN S OF 21N AND SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IN THE W ATLC WITHIN 400 NM
E OF THE TROUGH/LOW FROM 20N-30N. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE GENERATED INLAND OVER COLOMBIA TO
NICARAGUA AND WITHIN 45/75 NM ALONG THE COASTLINES INCLUDING
LAKE MARACAIBO. THIS OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE FURTHER
AMPLIFIED BY AN TROUGH OVER THE W GULF AS WELL AS MOISTURE FROM
T.S. ADRIAN MOVING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. BOTTOM LINE...AN
UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.

REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ALONG 42W CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED
NEAR 26N46W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 17N52W.
DIFFLUENCE E OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS GENERATING A BAND
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF 43W FROM
17N-28N WITH CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE FURTHER EAST
N OF 17N TO 30W. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD
BUT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO. THE OTHER MAIN FEATURE
IN THE ATLANTIC IS THE LARGE SURGE OF AFRICAN DUST THAT
CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE WEST WITH LEADING EDGE ALONG 57W FROM
THE ITCZ TO 20N NARROWING TO S OF 15N W OF 48W. SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE DUST CONCENTRATIONS ARE
GRADUALLY DECREASING...THUS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO
RE-DEVELOP.

$$
WALLACE



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