[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141739
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT 14 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE S OF 14N ALONG 53W MOVING W 15 KT. SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE WAVE. MOISTURE AND ENHANCED SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE SHOULD AFFECT THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF
MARTINIQUE OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD NW TO NEAR GUADELOUPE LATE SUN.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W S OF 16N MOVING W
NEAR 15 KT. THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE IS CAUSING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF HISPANIOLA.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 3N25W 7N59W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 15W-27W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 1N TO 4N BETWEEN 5W AND 11W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
QUIET PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCING A CLUSTER
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE N CENTRAL GULF OFF THE COAST OF
LOUISIANA N OF 27N BETWEEN 88W-92W. OTHERWISE WEATHER REMAINS
DRY. WATER VAPOR IMAGES INDICATE A TROUGH FROM THE NE GULF.
THE AREA OF SMOKE AND HAZE ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO SHRUNK IN SIZE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT SURFACE
STATIONS IN THE AREA ARE STILL REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF 4-6 NM.
JET STREAM FROM CENTRAL ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N97W SE
TO WESTERN CUBA. SATELLITE WINDS INDICATE WIND OF 95-110 KT.

CARIBBEAN SEA....
WET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF A
MID/UPPER TROUGH FROM E CUBA TO E PANAMA WITH ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAIN. SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM CONTINUES FROM WESTERN CUBA TO
HISPANIOLA. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS S OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN
70W AND 75W. AND WITHIN 75 NM RADIUS OF 14N79W. OTHERWISE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE TROUGH WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST
CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA. W OF THE TROUGH JUST A FEW CUMULUS
CLOUDS WITHN ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N49W 29N55W TO 29N68W WHERE
IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 31N75W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
AND A FEW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 28N60W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS...WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM 17N TO 25N BETWEEN 50W-70W. SKIES ARE BROKEN TO
OVERCAST IN THAT AREAS OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC WITH
BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN THE WLY WINDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 20N-30N
FROM 20W-50W. SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N43W TO 20N60W. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 70 NM OF THE TROUGH. BROAD
MID/UPPER RIDGING IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC W OF 40W WITH A
TROUGH FROM THE CAPE VERDES TO EQ35W.

$$
DGS

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