[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140013
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI 13 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE
IS NOW SEEN ON VISIBLE IMAGERY.  THERE IS NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE EAST CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ALONG 68W S OF 16N MOVING W
NEAR 15 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 62W-67W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 3N23W 3N40W 5N47W 4N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED
ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 4W-20W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 14W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESSURE NE OF THE AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE ALONG THE N GULF
COAST.  BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
NOTED OVER THE NE GULF FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 87W-90W.  A
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS FLOW IS
ADVECTING LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE INTO TEXAS AND LOUISIANA AND
FARTHER NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SMOKE AND HAZE
REMAINS EVIDENT ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO.  SURFACE STATIONS IN THE AREA ARE GENERALLY REPORTING
VISIBILITIES OF 5-6 NM.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS MOVING NE ACROSS SE LOUISIANA...AHEAD OF A MUCH
STRONGER DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SE LOUISIANA.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE OVER THE SE U.S.
WHILE THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN....
BESIDES THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN A MORE SIGNIFICANT
FEATURE IS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN E OF NICARAGUA FROM 18N80W TO 10N82W.  THIS TROUGH
PRESENTLY ONLY HAS SOME SHOWERS BUT A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO
FORM WITHIN 24 HOURS.  IMPRESSIVE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA...THE S CARIBBEAN...AND NW
VENEZUELA FROM 5N-15N BETWEEN 68W-79W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUE OVER JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...CYCLONIC TURNING IS
NOTED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.  RIDGING WITH SW FLOW COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE SEA.  CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN.  EXPECT MORE ENHANCED RAINS ACROSS JAMAICA...
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ESPECIALLY OVER
HISPANIOLA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 33N60W 31N74W.
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF
FRONT.  A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N44W
28N46W 25N50W.  A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO N OF HISPANIOLA
ALONG 21N60W 21N70W.  A LARGE UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM OBSCURES ALL
LOW CLOUDS AND CONVECTION FROM 20N-28W BETWEEN 20W-70W.  A 1025
MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N23W.  SURFACE RIDGING IS
N OF 15N AND E OF 43W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W
ATLANTIC N OF 22N AND W OF 65W.  MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THIS AREA.  WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLANTIC.  THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA ALONG 15N17W 9N25W
TO 5N35W.  EXPECT A 1009 MB LOW TO DEVELOPED NE OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 21N63W IN 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA


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