[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 121749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU 12 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
XXXX UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W/39W S OF 13N MOVING W 15 KT. THE WAVE
IS VERY WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.  THE POSITION IS BASED ON
A SMALL NORTHWARD PERTURBATION OF THE ITCZ AXIS.  THERE IS
CURRENTLY NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/59W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
THIS MORNINGS UPPER AIR DATA FROM BARBADOS INDICATED THAT THE
WAVE WAS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA. THE WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE AXIS. THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
WEST BRINGING RAINFALL TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.


...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 9N23W 8N30W 8N38W 5N44W 5N53W.
THIS IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ACTIVITY ALONG THE ITCZ.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN SW OF THE COAST OF
AFRICA WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 4N10W TO 6N14W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SEEN SOUTH OF AFRICA TO THE EQUATOR E OF 10W.

...DISCUSSION...

WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WELL NORTHWARD ACROSS
LOUISIANA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS ADVECTING CLOUDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
EASTERN TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NW TEXAS.
SMOKE AND HAZE FROM AGRICULTURE FIRES OVER MEXICO AND CENTRAL
AMERICA IS MUCH LESS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY.
HOWEVER...A FEW SURFACE STATIONS IN EASTERN MEXICO AND ALONG THE
MEXICAN GULF COAST ARE STILL REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF 5-6 NM.
WITH AND INCREASE IN CLOUDS/MOISTURE AND RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA AND EASTERN MEXICO IT APPEARS THAT THE HAZY CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE.

EASTERN GULF...FLORIDA...THE WEST ATLANTIC AND THE CARIBBEAN....
EAST-WEST ELONGATING UPPER LOW/TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN NEAR 28N74W WITH
THE TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE N BAHAMAS...S FLORIDA AND
INTO THE EXTREME SE GULF OF MEXICO. DRY AIR/STRONG SUBSIDENCE
SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.

A BROAD JET AXIS WITH WINDS OF 70-90 KT IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE
TROUGH FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA THROUGH 26N60W.
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN.  UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE TROUGH AND JET
AXIS IS INTERACTING WITH REMNANTS OF OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC NEAR PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. A
LARGE BAND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM
EITHER SIDE OF LINE ALONG 21N60W 20N70W...ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND
JAMAICA INTO THE W AND SW CARIBBEAN FROM THE COAST OF HONDURAS
SOUTHWARD. THESE ENHANCED RAINS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A FEW
MORE DAYS FROM THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING NE ACROSS
JAMAICA... HISPANIOLA... AND PUERTO RICO. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA.

REMAINDER ATLANTIC...
LARGE DEEP LAYERED LOW IS LOCATED WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW INTO
THE N PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 45W AND 60W. DRY AIR/
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS SEEN NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 31N48W TO 25N52W...THEN
EXTENDS SW AS A TROUGH TO NEAR PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT.
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLANTIC N OF 18N E OF 60W. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS
STREAMING EAST ACROSS THE ATLC IN UPPER FLOW. BROAD VERY WEAK
RIDGING IS LOCATED BETWEEN 30W-45W.

BROAD RIDGING OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS SEPARATED BY A
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 16N16W TO
7N35W. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE DEEP TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS
COVERED BY AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH THAT IS CENTERED 9N53W.

$$
BROWN


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