[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 112356
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED 11 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
POSITION IS BASED ON LOW CLOUD CYCLONIC SIGNATURE AND
ENHANCEMENT OF ITCZ CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED 1.5N TO 7.5N WITHIN 180 NM EITHER IS
SIDE OF WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W FROM 3N TO 1N MOVING W 15 KT. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION...WITH A FEW STRONG CELLS
DEVELOPING WELL INLAND...NOTED WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE
FROM 1N52W TO 6N55W. THE ITCZ IS ALSO ENHANCED E OF THE WAVE.

CENTRAL AMERICAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W S OF 17N MOVING W
10-15 KT. A FEW CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MEXICO WITHIN 30 NM OF
WAVE.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 4N19W 2N33W 8N53W 9N59W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 300 NM N OF AXIS E OF
25W. EXCEPT AS NOTED WITH TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 33W...SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG OBSERVED FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 26W AND
36W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM
EITHER SIDE OF LINE 4N43W TO THE TROPICAL WAVE 9N53W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLANTIC...
AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHILE AN
UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE EASTERN GULF. A MOISTURE PLUME IS
RACING E OVER THE AREA S OF 25N BETWEEN 94W AND 84W WHILE DRY
UPPER AIR IS NOTED ELSEWHERE ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK 1017
MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N87W AND A WEAK LOW PRES IS ANALYZED
OVER N FLORIDA NEAR 29.5N 82.5W...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING S
ALONG THE INTERIOR W COAST OF FLORIDA. HAZE AND SMOKE FROM
AGRICULTURE FIRES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IS NOTED S OF 25N W OF
95W...BUT IT NOT NEARLY AS DENSE AS THE PAST FEW DAYS. CUMULUS
CLOUDS NOTED IS PHASE WITH THE GULF STREAM LOOP OVER THE
E-CENTRAL WATERS.

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S INTO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...ROUGHLY
N OF 18N BETWEEN 85W AND 70W WHERE DRY AIR ALOFT IS INDICATED.
WEAK UPPER RIDGING IS NOTED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...OTHERWISE
THE UPPER FLOW IS ZONAL AND ADVECTING DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE E
PACIFIC ITCZ EASTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...AND REINFORCED BY
DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE
TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG A PERSISTENT FRONTAL TROUGH
OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE
ENHANCED RAINS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE DAYS
RESULTING IN A TRAIN ECHOING EFFECT. FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES
ARE POSSIBLY DOWNSLOPE OF ELEVATED TERRAIN. THE NORTHERN
EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
RAIN OVER THE SE ISLANDS ON THU.

REST OF THE ATLANTIC...
A SMALL UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 32N76W WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING S ACROSS THE BAHAMAS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. A LARGE
DEEP LAYERED LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 39N56W...WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING SW INTO THE AREA ALONG 31N56W 25N65W. DRY AIR
DOMINATES THE AREA N OF A LINE FROM 21N75W 25N60W 31N50W. A
LARGE ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 10N45W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING
NE TO WELL BEYOND 32N38W. A MOISTURE PLUME IS NOTED WITHIN 360
NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 18N65W 31N35W. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE
ORIGINATES FROM EAST PACIFIC ITCZ CONVECTION AND CONVECTION OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN. UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG A PERSISTENT SURFACE FRONTAL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 32N49W TO 20N68W....WITH DEBRIS MOISTURE MERGING
WITH THE PLUME FROM THE SW. E OF THIS TROUGH...A RIDGE DOMINATES
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATLANTIC E OF 48W...AND IS SUPPRESSING
CONVECTION.

$$
NELSON

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