[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100020
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON 09 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED ALONG 22W S OF 14N MOVING W AT 10
KT.  UPPER AIR TIME SECTION OVER DAKAR SENEGAL SHOWED A TROPICAL
WAVE PASSAGE.  THERE IS AN INVERTED-V SIGNATURE AN THE ITCZ AT
22W.  FURTHER NORTH THERE IS ALSO A DISTINCTIVE LOW LEVEL
SIGNATURE S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN
21W-24W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT.  VISIBLE
IMAGES SHOWS A WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V SIGNATURE ALONG THE ITCZ.
MORE LOW LEVEL CURVATURE IS NOTED FURTHER NORTH TO 16N.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SEEN ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN
38W-42W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 81W S OF 18N MOVING
W 10-15 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE FAR SW
CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 80W-82W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 6N22W 3N30W 6N40W 3N45W 3N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 26W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR
27N77W.  SE 10 KT RETURN FLOW WINDS DOMINATE THE GULF OF MEXICO
VERY MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY.  A SMALL SURFACE TROUGH IS S OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM 29N86W TO 26N90W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 86W-89W.  VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THICK SMOKE OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AND THE W GULF W OF 92W AND S OF 26N MOVING NW WITH THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
NOTED OVER MISSISSIPPI NEAR 33N90W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE N
GULF N OF 24N BETWEEN 82W-100W.  THE CONVECTION S OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE IS ALSO PARTIALLY DUE TO THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF EXCEPT FOR THE NE
GULF.  EXPECT MOSTLY EASTERLY 10-15 KT SURFACE FLOW IN 24 HOURS
AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SLIGHTLY NORTH OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST.

CARIBBEAN...
MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN.  ALSO SEE
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE.  CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED INLAND OVER VENEZUELA....
COLOMBIA...AND PANAMA.  FURTHER N THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY
FRONT IS OVER HISPANIOLA.  SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST OVER THE
ISLAND.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF HIGH
CLOUD AND PACIFIC MOISTURE HAS ADVECTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
DUE TO A BROAD RIDGE OVER VENEZUELA.  EXPECT CONTINUED
CONVECTION S OF 12N THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO PROCEED W...AND FOR
SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA TO LINGER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  MORE
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO ADVECT OVER THE SEA PRODUCING
MORE HIGH CLOUD COVER.

ATLANTIC...
1020 MB HIGH IS SITTING OVER GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND WITH MOSTLY
LIGHT WINDS N OF 26N W OF 70W IN THE AREA.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...ATTRIBUTABLE TO A BROAD UPPER TROF
OVER THE W ATLC W OF 60W. A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL AHEAD OF
THE ACTUAL LOW AND ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N57W TO 25N61W
STATIONARY TO 21N66W DISSIPATING TO CENTRAL HISPANIOLA.
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF IS GENERATING WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION UP TO 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF
26N WITH OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM HISPANIOLA E TO THE NRN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS BOUNDARY OR A WEAKENED VERSION WILL REMAIN
NEAR THESE ISLANDS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK PROVIDING THE FOCUS
MECHANISM FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BY LATE WED. A SECOND
COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING SWD AROUND THE LOW INTO THE AREA ALONG
32N65W 28N68W DISSIPATING TO 28N74W AND IS BRINGING IN SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS LOCATED OVER
THE CNTRL ATLC ALONG 48W WITH A SFC RIDGE FROM A 1022 MB HIGH
NEAR 31N45W SW TO 20N60W AND SE TO 23N30W THEN NE TO THE CANARY
ISLANDS.  BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTROLS THE E ATLC... WITH A GALE
LOW NEAR THE AZORES DOING LOOPS NEAR THE ISLANDS,  THE LOW IS
THE SAME LOW THAT CAUSED GALE FORCE WINDS S OF 31N LAST WEEK AND
IS STUCK BENEATH AN UPPER HIGH W OF SPAIN.  A WEAK SFC TROF
ATTACHED TO A SPIRALING LOW NEAR THE AZORES IS JUST EDGING INTO
THE AREA ALONG 32N20W 27N31W AND IS ONLY BRINGING IN BROKEN
STRATOCUMULUS SWD TO 26N.  VISIBLE SATELLITE IN THE E ATLC ALSO
SUGGESTS DUST BLOWING OFFSHORE OF AFRICA... THIS TIME MOSTLY N
OF DAKAR TO 22N E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
FORMOSA


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