[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091031
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON 09 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 38W S OF 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE IS DISPLAYING A WEAK INVERTED-V SIGNATURE WITH THE ITCZ
COMING TO AN APEX. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 34W-39W.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 77W S OF 17N MOVING W
10-15 KT. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE WAVE HAS FLATTENED OUT
CONSIDERABLY MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS PULSING OVER NRN
COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 71W-79W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N10W 4N26W 6N36W 3N43W 2N53W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 13W-19W AND
23W-32W. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 43W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO SLIDE SLOWLY TO THE E AND IS NOW OVER THE
NRN BAHAMAS...AND IS PUTTING MOST OF THE GULF WATERS UNDER SELY
WINDS AT THE SFC. DEWPOINTS ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE E GULF HAVE
COME UP A BIT SINCE LAST NIGHT AND ARE NOW GENERALLY IN THE 60S
F AS MOIST FLOW IS BROUGHT IN FROM THE TRPCL ATLC. THE UPPER
LEVEL WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY BUT ALL THE CIRRUS HAS SHIFTED INTO
THE NRN CARIBBEAN AND HAS LEFT A DRY SWATH OF AIR FROM ERN
MEXICO NEWD TO FLORIDA. HOWEVER...A SHARP UPPER TROF IS SWINGING
THRU E TEXAS WHICH HAS LED TO INCREASED MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
MOSTLY OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST. LOW CLOUDS ARE HANGING OVER SE
TEXAS AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS DOWN THE MEXICAN GULF
COAST...AND A LONE TSTM CELL HAS RECENTLY POPPED ABOUT 50 NM OFF
THE SW LOUISIANA COAST ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
LAST NIGHT'S SEVERE WEATHER. SMOKE CONTINUES TO BE A PROBLEM
OVER THE W GULF FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NWD TO THE MEXICO/TEXAS
BORDER W OF 90W...AND LOW-LEVEL SELY FLOW MAY BRING SOME OF THIS
AIR INLAND OVER NE MEXICO TODAY. FEW CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES STAYS JUST E OF
FLORIDA WITH E/SE FLOW OVER THE GULF WATERS.

CARIBBEAN...
WIDESPREAD CIRRUS COVERS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS MORNING AS
TRPCL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED IN FROM THE E PACIFIC. THERE IS
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
SEVERAL AREAS OF SHOWERY WEATHER. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE
BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FOR THE PAST 2 DAYS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE ALSO BEEN HUGGING THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA. A STATIONARY FRONT HAS SAGGED ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE ISLAND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE BEEN CONTINUOUSLY DEVELOPING
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND THIS COULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK...WITH EVEN STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ANTICIPATED BY WED NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN INCREASES DRASTICALLY. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO
LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE NRN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...POSSIBLY LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING LATER IN THE WEEK
ESPECIALLY IN THE STEEPER TERRAIN OF ALL THESE ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC...
A 1019 MB HIGH HAS SHIFTED E OF FLORIDA OVER THE NRN BAHAMAS
NEAR 27N78W AND IS OVERLAID BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS. THIS IS ATTRIBUTABLE TO A BROAD UPPER TROF
OVER THE W ATLC BETWEEN 58W-80W WHICH IS SUPPORTING THE GALE LOW
SE OF CAPE COD MASSACHUSETTS. A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL AHEAD
OF THE ACTUAL LOW AND ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N58W TO 23N63W TO
THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AS A STATIONARY FRONT. DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF IS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION UP TO 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N...AND
OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THESE ISLANDS DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL BY
LATE WED. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING SWD AROUND THE LOW
INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N65W 29N70W 30N76W BUT IS ONLY REINFORCING
DRIER AIR. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS LOCATED OVER THE CNTRL ATLC
ALONG 49W WITH A SFC RIDGE ALONG 32N46W 25N41W EWD TO A 1016 MB
HIGH OVER THE SW CANARY ISLANDS. AN SHEARED UPPER TROF IS DRAPED
FROM ABOUT THE COAST OF MOROCCO SW TO 15N30W 8N33W AND
CONTINUES TO PUMP HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS TOWARDS
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND W AFRICA. A WEAK SFC TROF ATTACHED TO
A SPIRALING LOW NEAR THE AZORES IS JUST EDGING INTO THE AREA
ALONG 32N21W 28N32W AND IS ONLY BRINGING IN BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS
SWD TO 27N.

$$
BERG


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