[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 072352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT 07 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE INTRODUCED ALONG 31W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
TIMESECTIONS FROM DAKAR SHOWED A DISTINCT MID-LEVEL WAVE PASSAGE
TWO DAYS AGO WHILE EVEN THE SAL OBSERVATION DISPLAYED A SIMILAR
PATTERN.  THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE WAVE IN
ADDITION TO A SLIGHT KINK IN THE ITCZ MARKING THE WAVE'S
LOCATION.  CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 69W S OF 16N MOVING WEST 15 KT.  WAVE
POSITION IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATED MOTION AS WELL AS SLIGHT
TURNING ON SATELLITE PICTURES.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 13N-16N.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 4N24W 5N31W 2N45W 3N51W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS E OF
25W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF A
LINE FROM 3N34W TO 1N43W THEN 3N51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
RETURN FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE W GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG
MAY COLD FRONT NOW IN THE W ATLC.  HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER NE
FLORIDA AND THIS HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS
FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...RESULTING IN ELY FLOW AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS FLORIDA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION WISE...A BUILDING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE COUPLED WITH DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT SHOULD PRODUCE GENERALLY
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS EXCEPT FOR DIURNAL
TSTMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.  ZONAL WLY FLOW
CONTROLS THE REGION ALOFT WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA
S OF 25N.  NO FRONTS ARE ON THE HORIZON WITH PERHAPS A FEW
INLAND TSTMS OVER THE SOUTHERN USA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A RATHER WET REGIME APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP FOR THE NE
CARIBBEAN AS THE REMAINS OF A FRONT SETTLE INTO THE HISPANIOLA
AREA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  UPPER JET ENERGY WILL BE IN
THE VICINITY AND COMBINED WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE VALUES COULD
PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINS FOR THE GREATER ANTILLES E OF CUBA THRU
PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 17N.  HEAVY RAINS...
FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES COULD OCCUR THIS WEEK IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO... DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF A WEAK NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT COULD
DEVELOP NEAR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY MID-WEEK.  FOR
NOW...BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE E HALF OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH WITH A WEAK TROUGH OVER NW CARIBBEAN FROM W
CUBA SW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO CENTRAL HONDURAS.  DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT IS SITTING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA BUT IS CAUSING
ONE FINAL DAY OF ENHANCED DIURNAL TSTMS IN THE VICINITY.
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE LIES OVER THE REST OF THE NW CARIBBEAN.
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS
PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISSIPATING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 11N-13.5N BETWEEN 78W-82W BUT SHOULD AFFECT
MAINLY MARINE INTERESTS.  A FEW ENHANCED TRADEWIND SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BUT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT TSTMS ARE OVER
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

ATLANTIC...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN...TYPICAL OF THE PAST 60 DAYS OR
SO... REMAINS OVER THE ATLC WATERS WITH A SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC NEAR BERMUDA...AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE
W/CNTRL ATLC BETWEEN 40W-60W...AND TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL/ERN
ATLC FROM THE AZORES SWD ALONG 32N27W THROUGH 22N30W TO 15N42W.
THE LATE-SEASON NOR'EASTER SE OF BOSTON TRAILS A COLD FRONT THAT
JUST PASSED BERMUDA TO 28N66W THEN TO 22N75W OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS WHERE IT BECOME STATIONARY AND WEAKENS TO CENTRAL CUBA.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF FRONT N OF
27N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 100 NM OF FRONT. A
SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE COLD FRONT WITH
THE MAJORITY OF THE TSTMS EITHER N OF 26N OR NEAR THE WEAKENING
TAIL END OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL FIRE SCATTERED TSTMS IN THE FAR
SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA SUN.  OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...
MID/UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT EXISTS ACROSS THE
AREA FROM 25W-55W PRODUCING GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS. OVER
THE E ATLC...A DEEP MID/UPPER TROF REMAINS FROM THE LATE-SEASON
GALE JUST E OF THE AZORES.  RESIDUAL SWELLS TO 9 FT IN THE AREA
ARE ALL THAT'S LEFT FROM THIS SYSTEM.  UPPER RIDGING LIES OVER
THE DEEP TROPICS FROM 3N33W TO 8N61W IN THE W ATLC AND FROM
3N33W TO NEAR GUINEA OVER AFRICA.  ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN THE
ITCZ AND WILL PROBABLY BE ON THE WANE IN GENERAL AS THE NEGATIVE
PHASE OF THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) ENTERS THE AREA IN
THE UPCOMING WEEK.  SUBTROPICAL RIDGING HAS BROUGHT THE TRADES A
BIT ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE W ATLC NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES WHILE
THEY REMAIN SUPPRESSED OVER THE E ATLC UNTIL THE LARGE
MID-LATITUDE LOW PULLS OUT EARLY THIS WEEK.

$$
BLAKE

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