[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060518
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI 06 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 62W DRIFTING WESTWARD. THE WAVE CONTINUES
TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH IS DISPLACING
MOST OF THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND APPEARS TO BE ELONGATING AS IT PASSES OVER THE
ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
09N-13N BETWEEN 55W-61W INCLUDING BARBADOS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE WEST OVER THE LEEWARD/WINDWARD ISLANDS BRINGING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE ISLANDS.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N10W 7N20W 3N30W 3N45W 2N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION/ISOLATED STRONG WEST OF THE AREA
OVER COTE D'IVOIRE AND GUINEA BOARDER.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 24W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MAKES IT WAY EASTWARD
AND EXTENDS FROM N ALABAMA S TO THE FLORIDA KEYS INTERACTS WITH
THE PRE-EXISTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS PERSISTED ACROSS
FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS.THE BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS  FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE WESTWARD
TO A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 28N83W. A COLD FRONT TRAILS SW FROM THE
LOW TO 22N88W THEN CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE NEAR THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE COLD FRONT HAS
SLOWLY BEGUN TO PUSH EASTWARD DRAGGING THE PREVIOUSLY STATIONARY
FRONT OVER THE E GULF...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVING E ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT DRYING THROUGH ALL
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH HAS PRODUCE RAPID CLEARING FROM
WEST TO EAST FINALLY BRINGING AN END TO THE UNSETTLED/WET
PATTERN OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA DURING THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH MEAN
AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA
NE ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE MID/UPPER LEVELS
REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE COVERING ALL BUT
W OF 81W PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE THE UPSTREAM TROUGH IS
PRODUCING SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SW. AT THE SURFACE...
COLD FRONT OVER THE E GULF IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM THE SE GULF
ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND  CUBA EXTENDING ACROSS THE E
BAHAMA ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ADVANCING SE AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH SE INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ESPECIALLY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY
MAY CONTRIBUTE. FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME DIFFUSE LATER TODAY
INTO SAT WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY
OVER CENTRAL AND E CUBA. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO
PUSH W VERY SLOWLY OVER THE LEEWARD/WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH
ASSOCIATED AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST.
EXPECT HIGHER THAN USUAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS FEATURE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO WITH A 1014MB LOW OFF THE W COAST OF
FLORIDA NEAR 28N84W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
FLORIDA THEN DISSIPATING ON FRIDAY WITH A SECOND LOW NEAR 32N76W
BECOMING THE DOMINANT LOW AND MOVING NE UP THE COAST WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHED THROUGH
FLORIDA AND ARE NOW AFFECTING CUBA AND BAHAMAS...GOOD LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLING AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT
AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS LATER TODAY. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLC...STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...FROM HISPANIOLA TO BEYOND
32N55W...IS PRODUCING DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. OVER THE E
ATLC...THE DEEP LAYERED LOW NEAR 31N31W WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR
35N34W CONTINUES TO LIFT SLOWLY NWD. MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOW N
OF 32N. ONLY LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACCOMPANY THE TRAILING DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ALONG 30N25W TO
161N31W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS W OF THE FRONT FROM 31N27W SW
TO 22N37W. EXPECT THE LOW TO BE N OF THE AREA BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE ASSOCIATED HIGH WINDS HAVE ALREADY DIMINISHED.
OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC...AREAS OF DUST NOTED S OF A LINE FROM
THE CANARY ISLANDS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG THE ABOVE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE ITCZ.

$$
JP/LL



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