[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010534
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN 01 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N35W 3N52W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 40W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE SE UNITED STATES COUPLED WITH A 130 KT UPPER JET THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO TRIGGER AN AREA OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STRONG TSTMS OVER THE NE GLFMEX AND N FLORIDA. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT OF THIS ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED N OF 26N AND WITHIN 300
NM AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
NEAR APALACHICOLA SW INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CLOUDINESS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF FRONT S OF 26N. FRONT
CONTINUES INLAND OVER MEXICO AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE
E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS WITH INCREASING
LOW CLOUDINESS NOTED OVER E MEXICO S OF 23N.  EXPECT AREA OF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO TRANSLATE SEWD
ACROSS N AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT.  THEREAFTER...ACTIVITY
SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE EXTREME SE GLFMEX AND S FLORIDA AS
THE UPPER JET LIFTS NEWD ALONG THE E COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES.  SURPRISINGLY...THE COLD FRONT ITSELF NOW APPEARS WILL
CLEAR S FLORIDA SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY BRINGING WITH IT AN
UNSEASONABLY LATE PUSH OF MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR.  ELSEWHERE
OVER THE AREA...A LARGE AREA OF SMOKE/HAZE CONTINUES TO MOVE NWD
FROM S MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE CENTRAL GLFMEX.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AMPLIFYING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDS INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO A
POSITION JUST N OF THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER NEAR 13N72W.
THE TROUGH IS ACCOMPANIED BY CONSIDERABLE DRYING ALOFT AS
CONFLUENCE HAS PRODUCED STRONG SUBSIDENCE WEST OF THE TROUGH TO
80W.  REGARDLESS...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 15N E OF 68W.  NUMERICAL MODELS
INDICATE THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR WILL PASS TO THE EAST.  AS
SUCH...EXPECT SCATTERED SHALLOW BASED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH MONDAY THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD WESTWARD
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  ELSEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL AND W
CARIBBEAN...VERY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LIMIT SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA.  INCREASING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE
YUCATAN ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION TAKES SHAPE.  HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICS AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM WITH THE FRONT ITSELF WILL
REMAIN LARGELY N OF THE AREA SAVE W AND CENTRAL CUBA WHICH MAY
BE CLIPPED BY THE FRONTAL ACTIVITY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER PATTERN HAS RIDGING OVER THE ATLC W OF 60W...A DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 45W-60W... AND
GENERAL ZONAL FLOW E OF 45W.  THE CENTRAL ATLC TROUGH IS THE
MAIN SHOW IN TOWN...WITH STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW TO THE EAST
MAINTAINING AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-50W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ON THE W SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS LEADING TO
TRANQUIL/DRY CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES W OF 50W THROUGH
THE BAHAMAS.  AT THE SURFACE...A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 31N58W WITH A
SECOND 1015 FURTHER S NEAR 27N52W. A TROUGH TRAILS FROM THE
SOUTHERNMOST LOW SW TO THE NE CARIBBEAN NEAR THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.  WIDELY SCATTERED ARE NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF
TROUGH S OF 20N.   EXPECT INCREASING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS THE SOUTHERNMOST
SURFACE LOW INTENSIFIES.  THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 26N42W
IN 24 HOURS WITH THE STRONGEST AND MOST NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS
WITHIN 200-300 NM EAST OF THE LOW AND A TROUGH TRAILING SWD TO
17N50W. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE A BIG WEATHER MAKER THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY NEWD.  FURTHER
S...THE DEEP TROPICS ARE CONTROLLED BY A MID/UPPER RIDGE WHICH
CUTS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG ROUGHLY 5N/6N.  MOST OF THE ITCZ
RELATED CONVECTION IS CONFINED W OF 40W OWING TO A LARGE AFRICAN
DUST OUTBREAK MARCHING WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WITH LEADING
EDGE NEAR 45W.

$$
RHOME


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