[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291817
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE 29 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 3N20W 2N30W S OF THE EQUATOR
NEAR 34W THEN INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S41W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 22W-25W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 33W-37W...AND FROM
4S-1S BETWEEN 38W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
1015 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N88W.
ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS OF 10-20 KT ARE GOING AROUND THE
HIGH.  FAIR WEATHER IS FOUND THROUGHOUT THE GULF.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A BAND OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUD IS S
OF 22N OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND
CUBA...MOVING E.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT...A NEW COLD FRONT TO BE ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST IN 24 HOURS.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WILL HAVE S-SW
FLOW DUE TO RETURN FLOW FROM A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER S
FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN...
COLD/STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS
ALONG 22N80W 20N84W 15N86W.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM
OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TODAY. ELSEWHERE
OVER THE AREA...MODERATE TRADEWINDS PREVAIL WITH PATCHES OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS IS CENTERED OVER PANAMA NEAR 9N78W.  A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS NE BEYOND PUERTO RICO.  A BAND OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WITH
BROKEN HIGH CLOUD IS NW OF THE LINE FROM E HONDURAS TO E CUBA.
THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WITH
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.  EXPECT...THE FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TO
DISSIPATE COMPLETELY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC...
COLD FRONT IS ALONG 32N68W 22N80W MOVING E.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM E OF FRONT N OF 29N.  BROKEN COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IS BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 28N BETWEEN
70W-78W.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG
32N30W 26N33W 20N40W 18N50W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM E OF FRONT N OF 27N.  BROKEN COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IS BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 23N BETWEEN
30W-55W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...STRONG CUTOFF LOW HAS MOVED OFF
THE NEW JERSEY COAST WITH ATTENDANT TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE W
ATLANTIC W OF 70W.   SHIFTING EAST...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER HIGH IN THE S CARIBBEAN ACROSS
HISPANIOLA/PUERTO RICO N OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL ATLC TO E OF
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH DOMINATES THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLC BETWEEN 25W-50W.  OVER THE FAR E ATLC...A
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE PREVAILS WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN
UPPER HIGH LOCATED IN THE TROPICS NEAR 8N22W NE ACROSS THE
CANARY ISLANDS. VERY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LIMIT
SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION OVER THE SUBTROPICAL E
ATLANTIC...AND ITCZ ACTIVITY REMAINS CONFINED NEAR THE EQUATOR.

$$
FORMOSA


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