[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290522
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE 29 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N19W 3N28W S OF THE EQUATOR
NEAR 35W INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 2S45W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF 2.5N E OF 4W TO
THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 15W TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WELL DEFINED DEEP LAYERED CLOSED LOW CONTINUES MOVING NE MOVING
INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH TRAILING SW INTO THE
GULF TO NEAR 26N93W. ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA
BEFORE THE MORNING HOURS WITH STRONG CONFLUENCE AND SUBSIDENCE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS PRODUCING RAPID CLEARING FROM NW TO SE.
NORTH FLOW IS PROVIDING A BRIEF COOLING TREND OVER THE E GULF
AND FLORIDA. HOWEVER...THE POST-FRONTAL SURFACE 1015 MB HIGH
CENTERED IN THE W GULF NEAR 26N93W WILL TRANSITION QUICKLY
ACROSS THE GULF REACHING S FLORIDA BY TUE NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...RETURN FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY MID-WEEK AND
DOMINATE UNTIL THE NEXT UPSTREAM WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES BY
LATE WEEK. A 130 KT JET EXTENDS FROM THE SW GULF ACROSS FLORIDA
INTO THE W ATLC NEAR BERMUDA IS ADVECTING PACIFIC MOISTURE
ACROSS MEXICO ACROSS THE S GULF INCLUDING S FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN...
MODERATE COLD/STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE THE W CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING ACROSS W CUBA INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE OVER THE AREA...
STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGING PREVAILS ANCHORED BY A WELL-DEFINED
UPPER HIGH NEAR 12N78W. THE 130 KT JET THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SW
GULF AND THE RIDGING TO THE E IS ADVECTING PACIFIC MOISTURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AMERICA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IS
CREATING A STABLE PATTERN ALOFT LIMITING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK.

ATLANTIC...
STRONG CUTOFF LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE NE UNITED STATES WITH
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ENTERING THE W ATLC NEAR 32N73W EXTENDING
SW ACROSS THE N BAHAMAS AND W CUBA INTO THE W CARIBBEAN.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 30N EXTENDING E OF THE FRONT TO
OVER BERMUDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS/LIFT WILL CLIP
THE N PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG 30N DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS
THE FRONT SLIDES E EXTENDING JUST E OF BERMUDA TO THE S BAHAMAS
BY TUE NIGHT. AS SUCH...EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY N OF 30N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FRONT
TO 24N. SHIFTING EAST...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
UPPER HIGH IN THE S CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA N OVER THE W
ATLC TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH DOMINATES
THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 25W-55W WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH...REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY...EXTENDING FROM 30N32W SW TO
20N49W. SECOND SURGE/COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N34W
EXTENDING SW ALONG 26N42W TO 25N49W THEN DISSIPATES NW TO
29N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N
FROM 26W-35W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE EXTENDING WITHIN 90
NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THEN W TO THE COLD FRONT N OF 22N.
OVER THE FAR E ATLC...A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE PREVAILS WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED IN THE TROPICS NEAR
9N23W NE ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM THE MADEIRA ISLANDS SW TO 20N30W. VERY DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LIMIT SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION
AND ITCZ ACTIVITY REMAINS CONFINED NEAR THE EQUATOR.

$$
WALLACE


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