[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260531
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT 26 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N20W 1N30W EQ50W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE 6N13W 2N16W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE S OF 2N BETWEEN 25W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS THRU THE NE GULF FROM ABOUT TAMPA
WSW TO THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 26.5N93W.  THE NE PART OF THE
BOUNDARY HAS BEEN SERVING AS A FOCUSING POINT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS >75F S OF THE FRONT
ALONG WITH LOCALLY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES.  THE
SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM REMAINS OVERHEAD BRINGING COPIOUS HIGH-
LEVEL MOISTURE THRU THE REGION WITH RIDGING FROM A CENTRAL
AMERICAN HIGH BRIEFLY NOSING THRU THE CENTRAL GULF.  THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OVER S TEXAS TODAY AS UPPER ENERGY
FROM THE DESERT SW INTERACTS WITH A STATIONARY FRONT.  A SURFACE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD... WITH POSSIBLE
SEVERE WEATHER ALONG THE LA/MS/AL COASTS AND FARTHER INLAND.
THIS WEATHER WILL BE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD ENTER
THE GULF IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME THE ONE
TO WATCH OVER THE CENTRAL/NE GULF SUN WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS LIKELY.

CARIBBEAN...
RATHER STRONG MID/UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NICARAGUA AND HAS
TAKEN OVER THE STEERING PATTERN WITH GENERALLY DRY NW FLOW OVER
THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE
THE RULE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.  UPPER PATTERN IS A BIT
MORE AMPLIFIED THAN RECENTLY WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE
CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES INTO NW VENEZUELA THOUGH ANY
LIFT/DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH ARE INSUFFICIENT TO
OVERCOME THE VERY DRY MID/UPPER ATMOSPHERE SEEN IN SOUNDINGS
ABOVE 800 MB OR SO.  THE NEXT FRONT SHOULD ENTER THE FAR NW
CARIBBEAN LATE MON THOUGH IT LOOKS WEAKER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT
BUT SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN WITH A FEW TSTMS.

ATLANTIC...
UPPER PATTERN HAS AMPLIFIED IN THE W ATLC WITH TROUGHING FROM
32N52W INTO THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES.  CONVECTION IN THE NW
PART OF THE AREA IS FADING A BIT WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
OVER THE NW BAHAHAMS. AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE SE OF THE CAROLINAS
MOVES AWAY AND NIGHTTIME COOLING TAKES HOLD...FURTHER WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED.  AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THRU THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 31N48W TO 25N61W WITH SCATTERED TSTMS
WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 28N.  E OF THE TROUGH... FLAT
ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE NE ATLC BETWEEN MID-LEVEL RIDGING IN THE
DEEP TROPICAL ATLC AND MID-LATITUDES STORMS.  1023 MB HIGH IS
NEAR 25N36W WITH RIDGING FROM THE CANARY ISALNDS TO JUST N OF
PUERTO RICO NEAR 22N65W.  TYPICAL TRADES HAVE RESUMED S OF THE
RIDGE AXIS WITH ACTIVE ITCZ CONVECTION FROM DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
IN THE E ATLC.

$$
BLAKE


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