[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240522
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU 24 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N6W 2N15W 1N31W ACROSS THE EQUATOR
NEAR 36W TO INLAND OVER S AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 250 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS E
OF 25W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
ITCZ AXIS W OF 25W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE FAR E GULF AND FLORIDA AS THE
POTENT S STREAM SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT TO SEA OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST TRIGGERING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR E
GULF AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE...A 1002 MB SURFACE LOW
RESIDES N OF THE AREA WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST ACROSS FLORIDA FROM JACKSONVILLE TO N OF TAMPA
ENTERING THE GULF NEAR 28N84W ALONG 23N90W TO OVER THE W COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N91W. THE COLD FRONT MARKS THE
LEADING EDGE OF A MODERATE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WITH POST-FRONTAL
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW LIFTING
QUICKLY NE AND THE FRONT WILL BE LOSING ITS UPPER SUPPORT S OF
30N DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT CLEARS S
FLORIDA LATER THIS MORNING BRING A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE NEAR
SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE FRONT THEN
BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATER TODAY AND
BEGINS TO WASH OUT BY FRI.

CARIBBEAN...
PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA
EXTENDING E/W ALONG 12N/13N. THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A
WELL-DEFINED UPPER HIGH OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N65W. THE
RIDGE WILL EFFECTIVELY BLOCK THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
ADVANCING ACROSS THE GULF EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY SPARK A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND
BELIZE DURING THE NIGHT INTO TODAY. OTHERWISE...VERY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
RESTRICT SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA SAVE SOME ISOLATED CELLS MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES WITH THE E TRADES.

ATLANTIC...
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE POTENT S STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
THE NW ATLC HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE EXTREME W ATLC WITHIN 150/180
NM OF LINE FROM OVER FLORIDA NEAR 27B80W TO BEYOND 32N73W. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY NW THIS MORNING WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
MOVE ACROSS BERMUDA TO THE N BAHAMAS BY LATER THIS MORNING.
COLD FRONT THEN WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC FRI
WITH ONLY A NARROW BAND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG ITS LEADING
EDGE. ELSEWHERE...THE PATTERN IS BECOMING INCREASING AMPLIFIED
AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE DIPS SE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC MOVING INTO
THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N31W SW TO A BASE
NEAR 24N36W. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N29W
TRAILING SW TO TO 25N43W. THE FRONT IS MOISTURE STARVED WITH
LIMITED CLOUDINESS OR PRECIPITATION. A NARROW BAND OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACCOMPANIES A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ALONG 30N29W TO 24N40W
WITH THESE FEATURES COMBINING WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. STRONGER
DYNAMICS/LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO CLIP THE EXTREME N PORTION OF THE
AREA...N OF 27N...DURING THE DAY AS THE SHORTWAVE REACHES ITS
SOUTHERNMOST POSITION. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A LINE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE N EXTENT OF THE
COLD FRONT THEN BECOMES LESS ACTIVE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS
IT APPROACHES THE CANARY ISLANDS. OVER THE E ATLC...
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND VERY DRY AIR
IN THE LOWER LEVELS MOVING OFF W AFRICA ARE LARGELY SUPPRESSING
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA. DRY AIR PENETRATES WELL
INTO THE TROPICAL WATERS RESTRICTING ITCZ CONVECTION S OF 5N.

$$
WALLACE



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