[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 231140
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED 23 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N17W 1N36W ACROSS THE EQUATOR
NEAR 40W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 1N11W TO THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG THE
COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 6N AND WITHIN 120 NM OF 3N FROM 16W-21W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 15W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA AND
WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC AND
WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA W OF 47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
POTENT DEEP LAYERED...CUTOFF LOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER TODAY AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY E TO OVER THE E UNITED STATES AND THE THE E
GULF. ATTENDANT 100 KT SUBTROPICAL JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LOW FROM NE MEXICO E OVER THE S UNITED STATES. AT THE
SURFACE... A 1003 MB SURFACE LOW RESIDES N OF THE AREA WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE GULF OVER MISSISSIPPI NEAR
30N89W EXTENDING SW TO 23N94W THEN STATIONARY ALONG 22N96W TO S
MEXICO NEAR VERA CRUZ. THE COLD FRONT IS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
DRY AIR ALOFT. SURFACE TROUGH E OF THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1005
MB LOW IN THE NE GULF NEAR 29N85W SW ALONG 23N90W TO 20N91W IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS E
OF THE TROUGH N OF 26N TO ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING NE COVERING
THE S TWO THIRDS OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY AND NOT CLEARING FLORIDA UNTIL DURING
THE DAY THRU.

CARIBBEAN...
PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED E/W ACROSS
THE AREA ALONG 16W/17N THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LITTLE
CHANGE. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GULF WILL
APPROACH THE EXTREME NW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN BY THRU BUT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PRECEDING THE BOUNDARY
ESPECIALLY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
OTHERWISE...VERY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO RESTRICT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA.

ATLANTIC...
A FAIRLY FLAT ZONAL FLOW PATTERN PREVAILS OVER THE ATLC WATERS
WITH THE CORE OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES AND
MID-LATITUDE AIR JUST N OF THE AREA. DIFFLUENCE IN THE W ATLC
FROM THE DEEP LAYERED LOW OVER THE UNITED STATES IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N OF 29N W OF 73W
AND N OF 27N W OF 80W ACROSS FLORIDA...TO INLAND OVER THE
EASTERN STATES. WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CLIPS THE N
PORTION OF THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N46W TO 27N52W WITH THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N46W EXTENDING SW
TO 28N53W THEN DISSIPATING TO 28N60W AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 31N38W SW TO 22N64W. LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG 16W/17N PREVAILS WITH
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE PRODUCING DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS
ALOFT. OVER THE E ATLC...MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALSO
PREVAILS IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS MOVING OFF W AFRICA ARE LARGELY SUPPRESSING CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ
AXIS.

$$
WALLACE




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