[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 190542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT 19 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W EQ30W EQ40W 1S50W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION S OF 4N BETWEEN 7W-17W
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE EQUATOR. ISOLATED MODERATE 150 NM N OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 27W-37W. NUMEROUS STRONG ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF
BRAZIL IS DRIFTING NWD ACROSS THE EQUATOR S OF 3N BETWEEN
40W-52W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CLUSTERS EXTENDING FROM THE
SURINAME/BRAZIL BORDER TO S/CNTRL VENEZUELA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK 1019 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED ALONG THE FL/GA BORDER AND IS
PRODUCING PREDOMINANTLY WEAK SFC FLOW OVER THE AREA...AS WELL AS
AN ABUNDANCE OF CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AS COMPARED
TO EARLIER THIS WEEK. SLY RETURN FLOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
PATCHY AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ABOUT 250 NM OFF THE MX/TX COASTS BUT
OVERALL THIS AREA DOES APPEAR TO BE ERODING AS IT DRIFTS N. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS SCOOTING EWD ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND IS PRODUCING MAINLY MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER
NE MEXICO AND CNTRL TX WITH A FEW SHOWERS BEING PICKED UP BY
DOPPLER RADAR N OF THE BORDER. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT OVER E OKLAHOMA AND E TEXAS SHOULD REMAIN N OF
THE GULF WATERS BUT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP FARTHER S ON SUN AS A SECOND MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF THE TX COAST EARLY IN THE DAY. THE NEXT
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OF THE COAST DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY UNTIL
TUE MORNING AT THE EARLIEST AND MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE TOO
LIMITED TO SUPPORT MUCH RAINFALL.

CARIBBEAN...
A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE AREA
EXTENDING FROM NEAR COSTA RICA NE PAST THE CNTRL LESSER ANTILLES
INTO THE ATLC AND IS PRODUCING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. HOWEVER...A STATIONARY FRONT
HAS HUNG UP FROM EXTREME SE CUBA TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS
BORDER NW THRU SRN GUATEMALA AND SE MEXICO AND HAS BEEN
TRIGGERING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN
84W-89W OVER NRN NICARAGUA AND MOST OF HONDURAS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR TEGUCIGALPA AND THE GULF OF FONSECA. THE CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE NIGHT BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
HANG AROUND AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE W CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS IS
PRODUCING MAINLY W/WSW FLOW OVER THE W ATLC REGION...WITH A WEAK
TROF EXTENDING ALONG 32N64W TO THE CNTRL BAHAMAS. THIS FEATURE
IS SUPPORTING A 1000 MB SFC LOW JUST E OF BERMUDA AND A COLD
FRONT WHICH EXTENDS SW ALONG 32N64W 23N74W...THEN AS A
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SE CUBA. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTEND
UP TO 120 NM SE OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 27N...WITH AN OVERCAST
BAND OF LOW CLOUDS/LIGHT SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE BOUNDARY S
OF 27N. AN ELONGATED E/W SFC RIDGE SPANS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CNTRL/ERN ATLC WITH A 1019 MB HIGH LOCATED ENE OF THE NRN
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N53W. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS SLIDING
INTO THE RIDGE ALONG 32N21W 22N30W BUT THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT HAS SHIFTED WELL TO THE E OVER MOROCCO AND MAURITANIA SO
ALTHOUGH THERE IS EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDINESS N OF 25N BETWEEN
13W-36W...THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO LARGE-SCALE PRECIPITATION. PART
OF THE UPPER TROF WHICH IS MOVING INLAND OVER W AFRICA EXTENDS
SWWD INTO THE TROPICS ALONG 18N30W 10N50W AND IS PRODUCING
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITS
AXIS...LARGELY SUPPRESSING ITCZ CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE EQUATOR
WHERE THERE IS MORE MOISTURE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE.

$$
BERG


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