[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 181756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI 18 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 2N20W 1N30W 2S45W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 4N BETWEEN 15W-37W.
SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM THE EQUATOR TO
3N BETWEEN 42W-45W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE N
COAST OF BRAZIL BETWEEN 40W-48W.  SIMILAR ACTIVITY OVER E FRENCH
GUIANA FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 51W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GLFMEX IS NOW IN A POST-FRONTAL REGIME AS THE COLD FRONT
FROM YESTERDAY CLEARED S FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING.  ATTENDANT
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW LIFTING RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS
FL WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE PRODUCING
CLEAR SKIES OVER ALL BUT THE EXTREME NE GULF WATERS AND N
FLORIDA. A LINGERING AREA LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN IS ALSO
NOTED ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO SWD TO GUATEMALA. A
WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE HAS BUILT IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
BISECTING THE AREA FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. WEAK RETURN FLOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE W GULF WHILE
NLY FLOW DOMINATES THE E GULF. THE PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY DRY/TRANQUIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS PRIOR TO A S
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA/W
MEXICO...PRODUCES INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS
OVER THE W GULF LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN.

CARIBBEAN...
GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT ENTERED THE NW CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT AND
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER
WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY INLAND ALONG THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A NARROW BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 45 NM E OF THE FRONT MAINLY N THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. NLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT IS ALSO PRODUCING LOW
CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF HONDURAS...S BELIZE...AND
GUATEMALA. ELSEWHERE...A WELL DEFINED MIDDLE TO UPPER HIGH
LOCATED JUST S OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS DOMINATES
THE E TWO THIRDS OF TEH CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
PRODUCING VERY DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. DRY CONDITIONS ALSO
PREVAIL IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY.  THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PULL UP STATIONARY FROM E CUBA TO
NICARAGUA BY SAT AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE STRONG RIDGE.
HOWEVER...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER W ATLC FROM A 1004 MB LOW NEAR BERMUDA
SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER CENTRAL
CUBA.  SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE LOCATED UP TO 150 NM
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP EWD OVER
THE ATLC BUT GRADUALLY LOSE THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS
THE ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER FLORIDA...LIFTS
NEWD AND WEAKENS.  THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY
32N50W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY SAT AFTERNOON.  FURTHER E...A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLC
BETWEEN 30W-70W.  UPSTREAM MOISTURE IS STREAMING NEWD UP AND
OVER THE RIDGE KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE CNTRL ATLC UNDER
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT.  OVER THE E ATLC...A
CUT-OFF LOW N OF THE AZORES EXTENDS A TROF SWD CLIPPING THE FAR
NE PORTION OF THE AREA BETWEEN 20W-30W.  THE TROF IS ACCOMPANIED
BY A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ALONG 32N25W 20N40W.  MOST OF THE
UPPER ENERGY/DYNAMICS IS CONFINED N OF THE AREA WITH ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE BOUNDARY N OF 25N.
FURTHER S....DRY LOW LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE AFRICAN
COAST MAINLY S OF 20N E OF 35W CREATING A NOTICEABLE ABSENCE OF
CLOUDINESS.  OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC...ITCZ CONVECTION IS MOST
NUMEROUS BETWEEN 15W-35W.

$$
RHOME




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