[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161149
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED 16 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 2N18W 1N28W 3N44W EQ53W.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM
11W-12.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 3N TO
INLAND OVER THE IVORY/GRAIN COAST FROM 7W-10W AND WITHIN 60 NM
OF 1N FROM 38W-41W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 17W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD LONGWAVE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS LOCATED OVER THE
DESERT SW AND NW MEXICO MOVING IN OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. BROAD
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF AND W ATLC WITH THE
AXIS ALONG 77W AND IS PRODUCING UPPER SW TO W FLOW OVER ALL OF
THE GULF. DIVERGENCE ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM WITH
WINDS TO 110 KT ALIGNED ROUGHLY ALONG THE W GULF COAST...AND
OVERRUNNING CONTINUES TO DRAW PACIFIC MOISTURE NE OVER S MEXICO
AND THE GULF WATERS TO OVER THE SE UNITED STATES GENERATING
HEAVY SHOWERS WITH BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF TO
OVER MOST OF THE SE UNITED STATES. A 1006 MB LOW OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING E ALONG THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE FAR W ATLC. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THIS LOW SW TO A 1004 MB LOW THAT MOVED OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO
CENTERED NEAR 27N94W CONTINUING SW TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR
TAMPICO THEN AS A STATIONARY FRONT NW BANKED AGAINST THE E
SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRES. HEAVIEST SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
N OF 25N FROM 83W-93W.

CARIBBEAN...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
AND REMAINS OVER THE ABC ISLANDS ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA
WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING NW TO OVER CUBA. MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA E OF 88W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA...ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE TROPICAL
ATLC S OF 20N. LITTLE MOISTURE WITHIN LOWER LEVELS ONLY
OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS FROM
OVER CUBA ALONG 77W WITH ANTICYCLONIC COVERING THE W ATLC W OF
55W. LONGWAVE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE NW/CENTRAL ATLC E
OF 55W COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N44W SW TO 25N58W THEN W TO
24N63W PULLING UP STATIONARY TO 25N71W AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BRIDGES THE FRONT SOUTHWARD. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
REMAINS N OF THE REGION THUS SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N.
REMAINDER OF THE FRONT IS DENOTED BY LOW LEVEL CLOUDS/ROPE CLOUD
ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE AREA N AND W OF THE FRONT IS
COVERED BY COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. ALMOST ZONAL WESTERLY
FLOW COVERS THE ATLC DUE TO LENGTH OF THE UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH.
A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG
44W AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N31W SW
TO 20N48W. DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 24N40W TO
BEYOND 32N28W. A SECOND WEAK A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS OVER THE E ATLC ALONG 23W. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE E ATLC EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS
NEAR 33N16W SW TO 17N34W.

$$
WALLACE


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