[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 160013
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE 15 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N7W 3N20W 2N40W 1N50W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 4N-6N
BETWEEN 8W-10W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
EQ-4N BETWEEN 28W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AT 2100 UTC A 1002 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR
25N99W.  A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E TO S LOUISIANA NEAR 29N90W TO
ANOTHER 1014 MB LOW OFF THE E FLORIDA COAST NEAR ALONG 27N79W.
ALMOST THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO IS IN THE WARM AIR MASS.
COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA TO TAMPA FLORIDA AND WITHIN 180 NM N
OF WARM FRONT.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE NW
GULF FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 90W-95W.  EXPECT THE LOW OVER NE TEXAS
TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF AND PROCEED TO N FLORIDA IN 24
HOURS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS IS OVER W MEXICO WITH
AXIS ALONG 108W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
AXIS FROM THE W TIP OF CUBA TO BEYOND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  A
STRONG 150-170 KT JETSTREAM IS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS COVERS MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN...
A 1017 MB HIGH IS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 25N74W
ENHANCING THE TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA MOVING S.
SIMILAR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA MOVING W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE COVERS THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH RIDGE AXIS FROM TRINIDAD TO N COLOMBIA TO
W CUBA ALONG 10N61W 10N74W 22N84W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS
OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N52W TO
THE 1014 MB LOW OFF THE FLORIDA COAST ALONG 28N60W 27N70W 27N79W
MOVING E.  COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE N OF THE FRONT.  A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG
32N29W 26N40W 20N57W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 30W-36W.  A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 22N23W.  A DRY AIRMASS THAT ORIGINATED FROM AFRICA
IS CONTINUING ITS PATH WESTWARD ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
TRANSPORTING AN AREA OF DUST TO ABOUT 35W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...RIDGE IS N OF 5N AND W OF 60W.  ZONAL FLOW IS IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 30W-60W.  ANOTHER RIDGE IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC AND W AFRICA E OF 30W.

$$
FORMOSA


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