[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132315
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN 13 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 3N20W 1N25W EQ38W 3S42W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN
14W-18W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN
32W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...AND WEST ATLANTIC W OF 60W...
1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 23N74W.
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AROUND THIS HIGH IS PRODUCING 10-15 KT
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH WARM FAIR WEATHER.
LIKEWISE THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPERIENCING EASTERLY FLOW
ENHANCING THE USUAL TRADES. A PATCH OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-19N
BETWEEN 60W-65W.  SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 65W-75W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER NICARAGUA DUE TO
ONSHORE FLOW FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 83W-86W.  THE W ATLANTIC W OF
60W HAS FAIR WEATHER WITH 10-15 KT WESTERLY FLOW EXCEPT FOR AN
OLD FRONTAL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 26N55W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR
20N70W.  BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE TROUGH.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS... AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER
THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N65W.  A 120-140 KT JETSTREAM IS
OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION TO INCLUDE THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLANTIC N OF 24N.  A BAND OF BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND W ATLANTIC W OF 60W.

REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N46W 30N50W
28N57W.  BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT.  A
1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 24N32W INCREASING
TRADES S OF 15N BETWEEN 30W-50W AND PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER.  AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS NOTED IN THE TROPICS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM EQ-9N BETWEEN 4W-10W MOVING W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-9N BETWEEN 7W-10W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN
4W-7W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC N OF 5N AND E OF 55W.  A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM
32N15W TO 22N20W 15N30W 9N50W.  A NARROW BAND OF SUBSIDENCE IS
NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS.

$$
FORMOSA


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