[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131141
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN 13 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N7W 5N10W 6N16W 1N26W ACROSS THE
EQUATOR NEAR 39W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION COVERS
THE AREA N OF 1N TO INLAND OVER AFRICA BETWEEN 1W-8W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 6N TO
THE EQUATOR W OF 32W TO THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE GULF AS WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREA WITH A 1019 MB HIGH LOCATED
OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE
CARIBBEAN AND BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE GULF IS PRODUCING
WSW FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WITH MODERATELY DRY UPPER AIR...LEAVING
THE GULF RELATIVELY CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE. SUBTROPICAL JET
STREAM EXTENDING FROM OVER MEXICO ACROSS THE GULF OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA WITH WINDS TO 110 KT IS ADVECTING HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE
SW GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR
THE ABC ISLANDS AND CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN WITH
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR LOFT HAS
LEFT THE AREA VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. EASTERLY TRADES OVER
THE S CARIBBEAN HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS POOLING LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 13N FROM
76W-80W INCLUDING E PANAMA. OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC REMAINS N OF THE AREA WITH
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ENTERING THE W ATLC NEAR 32N53W EXTENDING
SW TO NEAR 27N66W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO THE
E...ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N32W EXTENDING W ALONG 30N49W
THEN SW TO JUST S OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 20N72W. MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN
ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 24N48W
TO BEYOND 32N30W WITH A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED NEAR
23N33W. THIS HIGH PRESSURE IS PREVENTING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM PUSHING S THUS DISSIPATING THEM. THE
COLD FRONT IS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRY UPPER AIR FROM ACROSS
THE GULF AND IS DENOTED BY BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND BROKEN
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS N OF OF THE AREA. SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMS
MERGE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL/WESTERN ATLC BETWEEN 40W-65W WITH
WINDS TO 130 KT. THIS COUPLED WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS
MAINTAINING CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWERS N OF 30N FROM 30W-45W WITH
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT N OF 23N. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER
THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS
SW INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N42W. WITH THE DRY AIR
ALOFT...ONLY BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PRESENT. AN AREA OF
CLEAR SKIES COMPLIMENTS OF SAHARA DUST COVERS THE FAR E ATLC
FROM 7N-14N E OF 25W.

$$
WALLACE



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