[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120618
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT 12 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 6N1W 3N10W 2N20W 1N30W...THE EQUATOR AT 40W...1S50W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 2S TO 1S BETWEEN 5W AND 9W...AND FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN
10W AND 12W. LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO AFRICA EAST OF 12W. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH IS OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES OF AMERICA...WITH MIDDLE LEVEL FLOW FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA
TO 40N EAST OF 130W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
FROM 40 TO 70 KT ARE BLOWING FROM THE WATER TO INTERIOR MEXICO
IN THE AREA SOUTH OF 20N AWAY FROM THE CYCLONIC FLOW TOWARD
MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW FROM 60 TO 100 KT
COVERS THE OPEN GULF WATERS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
ALONG THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA EASTERN COAST...MOVING INTO
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS TROUGH
REACHES NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT GULF
OF MEXICO SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH 30N84W IN FLORIDA TO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N90W TO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR
25N99W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DISSIPATING SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT RUNS FROM THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS...TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO WESTERN JAMAICA TO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF NICARAGUA...THROUGH EL SALVADOR TO SOUTHERN
GUATEMALA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTH OF 25N BETWEEN
70W AND 78W...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE MIDDLE OF
CUBA...HAITI...AND JAMAICA...AND WITHIN 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 18N78W 15N80W 11N84W AT THE BORDER OF SOUTHERN NICARAGUA AND
COSTA RICA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA IS PUSHING SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
NORTHEASTWARD. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC FROM
FLORIDA TO 60W NORTH OF 20N. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW WITH THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH...WHICH IS SUPPORTING THE CURRENT
SURFACE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH 31N47W TO 25N60W
TO 22N70W TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA NEAR
20N75W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS SOUTH OF 30N BETWEEN 20W AND 60W. A MARKED LINE OF DRY
AIR IS WITHIN AT LEAST 500 NM WEST OF 17N25W...NEAR THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS...TO 10N37W TO 6N40W 3N48W. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS IS EAST OF THIS
17N25W 3N48W LINE. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ABOUNDS EAST
OF THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO AFRICA...AROUND A SURFACE
1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 26N36W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH RUNS FROM ITS BASE IN SOUTHERN MOROCCO OVER THE CANARY
ISLANDS AND EVENTUALLY BEYOND THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. THIS TROUGH
SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH WHOSE SOUTHERNMOST POINT IS 33N21W.

$$
MT


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