[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101152
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU 10 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N10W 6N15W 2N22W ACROSS THE
EQUATOR NEAR 29W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF
A LINE FROM 4N7W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 2N AND EXTENDING BEYOND
THE PRIME MERIDIAN. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF 1N FROM 13W-18W.
CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE S OF THE EQUATOR ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MOST OF THE ACTIVE PATTERN HAS MOVED INTO THE FAR W ATLC WITH
ONLY A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT REMAINING. A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL JET STILL EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE N
GULF MERGING WITH THE POLAR JET ALONG THE SE COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES. THE PHASING OF THE JETS HAS RESULTING IN CORE WINDS
EXCEEDING 170 KT OVER THE FAR E GULF INTO THE W ATLC WITH
ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS/LIFT WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION MAINTAINING
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE...THE STATIONARY
FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN. UPSTREAM...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW HAS REACHED THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN AND IS STARTING TO PUSH OFF THE E UNITED STATES COAST
INTO THE W ATLC BUT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A REINFORCING SHOT OF
CONTINENTAL AIR NOW COVERING THE GULF WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
MUCH DRIER AIR REACHING ACROSS FLORIDA. THUS...WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E
OF 84W WITH THE COLD FRONT TRAILING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM A
1013 MB LOW OVER S ALABAMA/FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N86W TO
26N93W. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE N OF THE AREA AND WITH THE DRY
AIR ALOFT LIMITING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...STRONGER WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE THE ONLY INDICATIONS OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

CARIBBEAN...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST OF
VENEZUELA NEAR 12N65W WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. ASIDE FROM A BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS...THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO REMAINS
LARGELY LIMITED RESULTING IN MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL/WESTERN ATLC EXTENDS TO A 1007 MB LOW
OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N82W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW INTO THE
GULF OF HONDURAS TO INLAND OVER GUATEMALA. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM CENTRAL
CUBA TO JUST E OF THE FRONT NEAR 18N85W. THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS IT GRADUALLY MOVES TO OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY DRY/TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PREVAIL
NOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ALONG THE N COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA BY THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC...
A COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS WSW ALONG 32N52W
PULLING UP STATIONARY NEAR 29N57W TO A 1004 MB LOW NE OF THE
BAHAMAS NEAR 27N74W CONTINUING SW AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE
1007 MB LOW OVER W CUBA. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE W ATLC N OF 21N W OF
70W. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FLORIDA LATER THIS
MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC AHEAD OF THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLC ALONG 32N32W 20N38W
16N42W AND IS ALSO SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 32N22W
23N32W 15N45W...THEN DISSIPATING SW TO NEAR TOBAGO. ALSO AT THE
SURFACE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR
25N52W. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150
NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 20N AND WITHIN 60 NM S OF 20N. OVER THE
FAR E ATLC...BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INLAND OVER AFRICA ALONG
10W PREVAILS WITH UPSTREAM MOISTURE STREAMING AROUND THE APEX
OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS AND SW EUROPE. AS A RESULT...MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE IS PRODUCING DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT WITH VERY
DRY AIR EXTENDING OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA FROM 3N-24N E OF 27W.

$$
WALLACE



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