[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 092355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED 09 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N0 2N10W 1N23W 1N31W 2S46W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 3N BETWEEN 8W-14W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE AREA AS A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS
CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE N GULF HAS MERGED WITH THE POLAR JET
FURTHER N ALONG THE E COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE PHASING OF
THE JETS HAS RESULTING IN CORE WINDS EXCEEDING 150 KT OVER THE
SE UNITED STATES WITH ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS/LIFT WITHIN THE
ENTRANCE REGION MAINTAINING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE GLFMEX AND THE ENTIRE
STATE OF FL.  AT THE SURFACE... QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE FL STRAITS SW TO A 1005 MB LOW OVER THE N YUCATAN
PENINSULA CONTINUING AS A COLD FRONT OVER S MEXICO ALONG 16N95W
THEN BANKED ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL
MOUNTAINS. THE STATIONARY FRONT LIES ALONG THE S EXTENT OF THE
LARGE CLOUD/PRECIPITATION SHIELD IMPLYING OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS
AS MOIST TROPICAL AIR SURGES NWD. LOOKING UPSTREAM...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIVING SEWD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS PRODUCING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF CONTINENTAL AIR CURRENTLY MOVING OFF THE SE
COAST OF TEXAS. THIS MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF MUCH DRIER AIR
WHICH WILL FILTER SEWD ACROSS THE GULF DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THUS...WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE E GULF AND FL THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT WITH RAPID
DRYING BEGINNING TOMORROW MORNING AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES
E OF THE AREA AND THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH.   NEXT COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE N GULF FRIDAY BUT
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE MAINLY N OF THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LIMITED.

CARIBBEAN...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE COLOMBIAN
COAST NEAR 13N75W WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN. ASIDE FROM A THIN SWATH OF UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND W CUBA...THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA IS UNDER
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ALSO REMAINS LARGELY LIMITED RESULTING IN MINIMAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY.  INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN LATER
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVES INTO THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT THEN WEAKENS THU AS IT MOVES EWD EXTENDING FROM E CUBA
TO HONDURAS BY THU AFTERNOON.  RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
THE FRONT REMAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FRI SUPPORTING WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM NICARAGUA THROUGH GUATEMALA.
ELSEWHERE...MAINLY DRY/TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG
THE N COAST OF S AMERICA BY THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING QUICKLY EWD OVER THE W ATLC WATERS ALONG
32N60W TO 26N60W THEN HANGS UP AS STATIONARY THROUGH THE NRN
BAHAMAS AND FL STRAITS.  CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN STEADILY SPREADING EWD
ACROSS FL TODAY PRIMARILY POLEWARD OF THE STATIONARY FRONT.
CURRENTLY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS W OF 75W.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF LIES DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CNTRL ATLC
ALONG 32N35W 20N40W 10N44W AND IS ALSO SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT ALONG 32N24W 20N35W 15N45W...THEN DISSIPATING SW TO THE
SRN WINDWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 27N WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF
27N. OVER THE FAR E ATLC...BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE W
COAST OF AFRICA PREVAILS WITH UPSTREAM MOISTURE STREAMING AROUND
THE APEX TOWARDS THE AZORES AND SW EUROPE.  AS A
RESULT...MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS PRODUCING DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS
ALOFT WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING VERY DRY AIR EXTENDING OFF
THE W COAST OF AFRICA FROM 8N-26N E OF 25W.

$$
RHOME


WWWW
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