[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091143
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED 09 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N20W 4N35W 1N52W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE SW COAST OF
AFRICA WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 5N16W 3N6W TO THE PRIME
MERIDIAN NEAR 5N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 12W-32W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE AXIS FROM 45W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN VERY ACTIVITY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM JET WITH WINDS TO 150 KT WILL
STAY NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES AND N GULF
INTO THE W ATLC. AT THE SAME TIME...MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP SE FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES INTERACTING
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND RESULTING IN QUICK ROUNDS OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CURRENTLY...THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER W ATLC WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPING
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS BECOMING STATIONARY N OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA EXTENDING INTO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ALONG THE E
SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. OVERRUNNING ALONG THE
FRONT COUPLED WITH BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A CUT-OFF
LOW OVER NW MEXICO IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF N OF 22N. EXPECT THIS PORTION OF THE
FRONT TO BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE ACTIVE AS A SECOND STRONG
SHORTWAVE DROPS RAPIDLY SE FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND IS
NOW OVER E TEXAS. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD IGNITE ANOTHER
IMPRESSIVE ROUND OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A FRONT
BEGINNING LATER TODAY THEN EXPANDING E ACROSS THE S HALF OF
FLORIDA BY TONIGHT. REINFORCING SURGE OF CONTINENTAL AIR WITH
THE SHORTWAVE WILL KICK THE NOW STATIONARY FRONT OUT THE W GULF
RESULTING IN ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER S FLORIDA INTO THU.
HOWEVER...POST FRONTAL N FLOW AND ASSOCIATED DRYING WILL BE VERY
BRIEF AS GUIDANCE INDICATES YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND FRONT
DROPPING FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN...
THE PATTERN REMAINS LESS COMPLEX OVER THE CARIBBEAN AS BROAD
MID/UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS EFFECTIVE BLOCKING UPSTREAM ENERGY FROM
PENETRATING THE AREA. THE RIDGE AXIS IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED E/W
ALONG 11N/12N WITH MULTIPLE ANTICYCLONIC CENTERS OBSERVED...ONE
OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND ANOTHER ALONG THE N COAST OF
VENEZUELA NEAR THE ABC ISLANDS. MOISTURE IS LARGELY ABSENT
THROUGH ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE EXCEPT IN THE FAR NW
CARIBBEAN RESULTING IN MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. THIS
DRY AIR SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TODAY WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE S GULF WHICH
WILL CROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND W CUBA LATER IN THE DAY.
THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO TRIGGER A
BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT...MAINLY
OVER W CUBA...EARLY THU. THEREAFTER...THE FRONT QUICKLY LOSES
UPPER SUPPORT WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE DISSIPATING
BOUNDARY WHICH PULLS UP STATIONARY FROM E CUBA TO HONDURAS BY
LATER IN THE WEEK. ELSEWHERE...DRY/TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC...
THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MOVED INTO THE W ATLC
YESTERDAY IS NOW QUICKLY LIFTING NE AND IS N OF 30N. A STRONG
COLD FRONT IS THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER OVER THE W ATLC CURRENTLY
EXTENDING OVER BERMUDA NEAR 32N65W ACROSS THE N BAHAMAS AND
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. GOOD DYNAMICS/LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
POTENT SHORTWAVE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N FROM 57W-68W.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT RAPIDLY NE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS THUS REDUCING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG
THE FRONT TO ISOLATED SHOWERS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE
AGAIN LATE TODAY FROM W TO E ALONG THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT
OVER THE BAHAMAS AS THE UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE
GULF. OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
HISPANIOLA TO BEYOND 32N55W PREVAILS. FINALLY OVER THE E
ATLC...A LARGE DEEP-LAYERED OCCLUDED LOW IS LOCATED N OF THE
AREA WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG 32N40W
TO 18N44W. ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG
32N24W SW TO 18N41W THEN BECOMING STATIONARY TO 14N50W...THEN
DISSIPATING JUST S OF BARBADOS. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS/LIFT WITH
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS N OF THE AREA BUT A NARROW BAND OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS UP TO 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF
25N...AND N OF 30N 15W-26W...FROM 20N TO 28N...ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE LOCATED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF FRONT. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HRS WITH DECREASING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

$$
WALLACE



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