[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081732
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE 08 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N8W 3N17W 3N31W 3S48W. A SWWD
PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG THE IVORY COAST/GUINEA BORDER
IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 7N-10N
BETWEEN 6W-8W. A SECOND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OFF THE COAST OF
LIBERIA IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN
10W-16W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
14W-38W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS N OF THE AXIS MOVING
INLAND FROM THE AMAZON DELTA TO THE BRAZIL/FRENCH GUIANA BORDER.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SRN STREAM CUT-OFF LOW CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN OVER NW MEXICO
NEAR MAZATLAN WITH THE ASSOCIATED SUBTROPICAL JET RIDING TO THE
NE FROM EXTREME S TX TO N FL. THE JET HAS COUPLED WITH THE
DIGGING MID-LATITUDE POLAR JET OVER THE SE U.S. TO PRODUCE AN
UNUSUALLY STRONG JET STREAK ALONG THE FL PANHANDLE...WITH RAOB
WINDS OF 180 KT REPORTED AT 250 MB OVER PENSACOLA THIS MORNING!
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS RACING ACROSS FL AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO...CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM JUST OFFSHORE JACKSONVILLE FL
SW TO FT. MYERS THEN INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE A 1011 MB
LOW IS CENTERED BETWEEN VERACRUZ AND MINATITLAN. THE FRONT HAS
BECOME BANKED ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRES AND
STRETCHES N TO JUST W OF MONTERREY...AND MANY STATIONS OVER
COASTAL SECTIONS OF MEXICO ARE REPORTING LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE.
OVER THE GULF WATERS...A BROKEN BAND OF LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS
EXTENDS UP TO 250 NM N OF THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
WITHIN THE BAND E OF 87W MOVING TOWARDS S FL. DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATES ALL RAINFALL HAS NOW SHIFTED S OF A LINE FROM PORT
CHARLOTTE TO VERO BEACH FL...AFFECTING ALL AREAS S TO MIAMI AND
THE FL KEYS. THE PRES GRADIENT NEAR THE FRONT IS ALSO QUITE
STRONG WITH 20-25 KT WINDS OCCURRING OVER THE E GULF AND FL.
DESPITE THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT...IT IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO
HANG UP OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND WILL ALSO DO SO OVER THE FL
STRAITS/CUBA TONIGHT. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CAUSE ANOTHER
ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSTMS TO FIRST DEVELOP NEAR THE
BOUNDARY OVER THE W/SW GULF TONIGHT AND MOVE E OVER S/CNTRL FL
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...FINALLY MOVING SE OF THE AREA BY THU
AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN...
A BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE IS ORIENTED E/W ACROSS THE N COAST OF S
AMERICA WWD TO NICARAGUA...WITH A CLOSED UPPER HIGH CENTERED
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE FLOW N OF THE RIDGE IS
PRIMARILY WESTERLY...ALTHOUGH CIMSS SATELLITE WINDS DO INDICATE
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM HAITI TO THE
NICARAGUA COAST. A DEEP PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITED TO BELOW 750-850 MB BUT
ISOLATED SHOWERS DO EXTEND WITHIN 45 NM OF A DISSIPATING FRONTAL
TROF EXTENDING FROM BARBADOS AND ST. VINCENT WWD TO 14N65W.
DEEPER-LAYERED MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL MOVE
SE ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED NIGHT...POSSIBLY LINGERING
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WATERS THRU THE WEEKEND.

WEST ATLANTIC...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS PUSHING OFF THE EAST COAST OF GA AND FL
AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF LIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE CAROLINA
COAST. BROKEN LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXTEND UP TO 275 NM SE OF THE
FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 25N-28N W OF 74W TO FL.
GALE CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND
THE FRONT DUE TO AN UNUSUALLY STRONG PRES GRADIENT THIS FAR TO
THE S. JUST TO THE E...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS LOCATED ALONG
67W/68W AND IS SHIFTING QUICKLY E IN ADVANCE OF THE EAST COAST
TROF. A 1021 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE AREA NEAR 28N63W AND
REACHES AS FAR E AS 50W AND SWD TO THE LESSER ANTILLES.

REMAINDER OF ATLANTIC...
A LARGE DEEP-LAYERED OCCLUDED LOW IS LOCATED N OF THE AREA WITH
THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROF EXTENDING SWD TO 23N BETWEEN
30W-55W...CENTERED ALONG 43W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
TRIPLE POINT SW INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N28W 20N40W 15N50W...THEN
DISSIPATING TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
ADVECTING A BROKEN STRATOCU FIELD INTO THE AREA N OF 25N BETWEEN
35W-54W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS UP TO 100 NM E OF THE
FRONT N OF 27N WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS EXTEND UP TO 100 NM
NW OF THE BOUNDARY FROM 15N-27N. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS LOCATED
E OF THE FRONT FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NE TO 32N16W AND IS
MORE OR LESS BLOCKING THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE UPSTREAM LOW.
VERY DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST BENEATH THE
RIDGE AND HAS REACHED AS FAR W AS 24W. IN THE TROPICS...A NARROW
UPPER RIDGE IS ALIGNED ALONG 2N/3N E OF THE BRAZILIAN COAST TO
30W...AND DIVERGENCE E OF THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
LINEARLY ALONG THE ITCZ. CONVECTION HAS BECOME RATHER STRONG
OVER PARTS OF W AFRICA BETWEEN GHANA AND LIBERIA AND OFFSHORE
THE COAST OF LIBERIA PRIMARILY FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
DAYTIME SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.

$$
BERG


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