[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080519
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE 08 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N3W 6N10W 2N20W 2N31W SOUTH OF THE
EQUATOR NEAR 35W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 40W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N OF
THE AXIS FROM 17W-24W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF 3N FROM 31W-34W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE S OF 2N W OF 40W
TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE S STREAM CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA COUPLED WITH AN
AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SE UNITED STATES
CONTINUES TO CARVE OUT A LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN EXTENDING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS N MEXICO. STRENGTHENING
SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS TO 150 KT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE S TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NE ACROSS MEXICO OVER THE N
GULF INTO THE E UNITED STATES. BROAD SCALE DIFFLUENT FLOW WITH
THE JET IS SUPPORTING PATCHES OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE GULF. MEANWHILE...STRONG DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING OVER THE E U.S. SHORTWAVE IS
PRODUCING SEVERAL BANDS OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN SE LOUISIANA TO OVER NE FLORIDA. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING SE OVER TEXAS WILL
EMERGE INTO THE NW GULF WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS THEN SWEEP
QUICKLY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS CLEARING FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO GENERATE GOOD DYNAMICS/LIFT ALONG THE FRONT PRODUCING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MEANWHILE THE COLD FRONT PULLS UP
STATIONARY OVER THE W GULF NEAR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER TODAY.
THIS SHOULD PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N WITH POST-FRONTAL N FLOW PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ALONG THE WINDWARD FACING
SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO PREVAIL OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WITH MEAN AXIS EXTENDING E/W ACROSS NRN PORTIONS ALONG
10N/11N. UPSTREAM MOISTURE IS RIDING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE
PRODUCING MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE AIR IN THE UPPER
LEVELS. AT THE SURFACE...THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS NO LONGER
IN THE CARIBBEAN BUT REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD POSSIBLE
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 13N E OF
75W. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS LIMITING
SHOWER ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS DRY AIR
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL LATER TODAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO APPROACHES THE AREA.

ATLANTIC...
AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE E UNITED STATES IS
RESULTING IN A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC. FOR NOW...THE
BUILDING RIDGE IS MAINTAIN DRY/TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA W OF 60W ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO THE
AREA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC
WATERS EARLY TODAY. COLD FRONT THEN RACES ACROSS THE W ATLC
TODAY REACHING BERMUDA BY TONIGHT AND TRAILING S TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS. AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NE WITH
ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS/LIFT CONFINED N OF 25N BY TONIGHT. SHIFTING
E...COMPLEX PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC HAS SIMPLIFIED AS ONE
FRONT REMAINS ALONG 32N34W 18N50W THEN DISSIPATING E OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N60W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...VIGOROUS DEEP
LAYERED LOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AHEAD OF
THE FRONT N OF 26N TO 20W. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO LIFT N OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING WITH OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING ALONG THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM 32N24W TO 16N48W BY THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE OVER THE E ATLC AND TROPICS...MID/ UPPER RIDGE IS
MAINTAINING VERY DRY CONDITIONS. DRY AIR ALOFT HAS PENETRATED
WELL INTO THE TROPICAL WATERS SUPPRESSING ITCZ ACTIVITY TO
MAINLY S OF 4N. ADDITIONALLY...LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IS ALSO MOVING
W OFF AFRICA FROM 5N-20N E OF 24W.

$$
WALLACE


WWWW
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net