[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051811
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT 05 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 2N20W 1N30W 3N40W 3N51W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-2N BETWEEN 9W-11W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 40W-44W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-4N BETWEEN 45W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N88W.
FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE E GULF E OF 90W.  A STATIONARY FRONT
IS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS
ALONG 17N95W 20N98W 25N100W.  OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS EXTEND FROM
17N TO 25N...W OF 95W TO THE FOOTHILLS.  FURTHER N OVER S TEXAS
AND THE NW GULF COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN AND SHOWERS
FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 95W-100W MOSTLY DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A LONGWAVE RIDGE IS OVER MEXICO...THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG
95W N OF 15N.  A BAND OF PACIFIC MOISTURE IS OVER CENTRAL
MEXICO...TEXAS...AND THE NW GULF PRODUCING OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS.
AN EMBEDDED 130-150 KT JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM W TEXAS TO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE ALONG 30N103W 32N93W 30N81W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING SE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.  IT
EXTENDS FROM W HISPANIOLA TO N OF JAMAICA TO NE NICARAGUA ALONG
20N71W 19N80W 14N84W.  A BAND OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30
NM OF THE FRONT.  EASTERLY TRADES DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN.  BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
NOTED FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 60W-70W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
RIDGE AXIS IS INLAND OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA PRODUCING SW TO
W FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN.  A PATCH OF MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN
66W-78W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG
32N40W 28N45W 27N55W.  FURTHER SE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 32N33W TO 27N40W 24N50W TO A 1013 MB LOW
N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 22N66W TO THE CARIBBEAN BEYOND 20N71W.
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 180 NM N OF BOTH FRONTS.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM N OF BOTH FRONTS.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A TROUGH RIDGE TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC.
A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-80W WITH
TROUGH AXIS ALONG 70W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N
OF 15N BETWEEN 30W-60W.  A BAND OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS AND 80 KT
JETSTREAM IS OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OBSCURING
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONTS.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 30W.

$$
FORMOSA





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