[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021808
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED 02 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 8N10W 4N20W 2N30W 1N40W...THE EQUATOR AT 49W...1S52W.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER AFRICA FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 10W AND
13W...FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 16W AND 27W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N
BETWEEN 30W AND 35W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 47W AND
51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SOUTH OF 30N ACROSS INTERIOR
MEXICO IS CARRYING OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO WEST OF 86W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN INTERIOR MEXICO SOUTHEAST OF 30N106W 28N110W...AND
IN THE GULF WATERS FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 96W AND LAND.
A COLD FRONT RUNS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO NEAR 25N90W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 25N90W
TO THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST...TO 30N100W AND INTO WEST TEXAS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO FLORIDA AND BRIDGING THE
FRONT INTO CUBA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SOUTHERN END OF AN ATLANTIC COLD FRONT REACHES THE NORTHERN
COAST OF HAITI NEAR 20N73W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 20N73W ACROSS JAMAICA TO THE EASTERN COAST OF
HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA WEST OF 80W. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVES FROM COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA...AND FROM NORTHERN PARTS OF SOUTH AMERICA...INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. SOME OF THE HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FLOW ARE MOVING THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE AND OVER PUERTO
RICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN THE AREA. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE AREA TO THE
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM HAITI TO EASTERN HONDURAS...WITH THE
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT. POSSIBLE SHOWERS WITH THE SURFACE
TRADEWINDS AND LOW CLOUDS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TWO FRONTS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC WEST OF 50W. ONE PASSES THROUGH
32N56W TO 28N60W TO 21N70W TO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA AT THE
COAST OF HAITI NEAR 20N73W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 TO
90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N55W 26N64W 20N73W...AND ELSEWHERE
NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. THE SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
NOT AS CLEARLY MARKED BY A BAND OF CLOUDINESS. IT IS THE LEADING
EDGE OF AN AIRMASS WITH A DISTINCT AREA OF STRATIFORM CLOUDS TO
ITS NORTHWEST. THIS SECOND FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N67 TO 30N70W
TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 70W IS SUPPORTING THIS SECOND FRONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM 20N53W BEYOND 32N50W...UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC WATERS BETWEEN 35W AND 60W.
SURFACE 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 23N48W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IN BETWEEN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND THE EASTERNMORE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT. DEEP LAYER
CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN CONTROL IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 33N25W...WHILE THE SURFACE 993 MB
GALE CENTER IS NEAR 33N25W ALSO. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
RUNS FROM THE CENTER TO 16N27W JUST WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT RUNS FROM A TRIPLE POINT NEAR
32N14W TO 27N20W 20N30W...AND DISSIPATING FROM 20N30W TO 18N39W.

$$
MT


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