[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 020534
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED 02 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N8W 3N20W 1N29W 2N28W TO INLAND
OVER SOUTH AMERICA AT THE EQUATOR NEAR 49W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 2.5N FROM
20W-29W AND S OF 3N W OF 47W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DRIER AND COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO SPILL S INTO THE GULF COURTESY
OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE NE UNITED STATES. THE
MAIN FRONT LIES SE OF THE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL/WESTERN ATLC
INTO THE W CARIBBEAN WITH A SECOND SURGE CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF
FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE SE COAST OF TEXAS WHERE IT PULLS UP
STATIONARY. A 1022 MB HIGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS
BUILDING S BEHIND THE FRONT MAINTAINING MODERATE POST-FRONTAL
NORTHERLIES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE HIGH CENTER IS
MIGRATORY IN NATURE AND WILL REACH N FLORIDA BY LATE WED/EARLY
THRU. THIS SHOULD ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE W GULF
WED PRIOR TO THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WHICH WILL TAKE SHAPE ON
THRU WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WED
AFTERNOON AND WED NIGHT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE PATTERN IS
DOMINATED BY A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
S FROM THE NE UNITED STATES INTO THE E GULF. RESULTING UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IS STRONG WITH A 130 KT JET CUTTING ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG 27N/28N. WITH THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS NOW ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...EXPECT THE UPPER TROUGH TO LIFT NE WITH
MAINLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW LEFT IN ITS WAKE THROUGH TODAY.

CARIBBEAN...
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CENTRAL/WESTERN ATLC COLD FRONT EXTENDS
ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN FROM E CUBA TO THE E TIP OF HONDURAS
WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH GUATEMALA INTO S MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTEND UP TO
180 NM NW OF THE FRONT WITH POST-FRONTAL N FLOW PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND
WINDWARD SLOPES OF OF CENTRAL AMERICA. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA E OF FRONT...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILS EXTENDING
FROM SE SOUTH AMERICA N OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING MAINLY DRY W FLOW
LIMITING SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY. A FEW PASSING TRADE WIND
SHOWERS ARE CROSSING PUERTO RICO/VIRGIN ISLANDS. OTHERWISE MUCH
OF THE AREA IS EXPERIENCING DRY CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC...
STRONG COASTAL NOR'EASTER WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES EXTENDS A COLD FRONT S ENTERING THE AREA E OF BERMUDA
TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN.
WHILE THE STRONGEST UPPER LIFT/DYNAMICS WITH THE PATTERN ARE N
OF THE AREA...A 300 NM WIDE BAND OF BROKEN/OVERCAST CLOUDINESS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SECONDARY/REINFORCING SURGE IS OVER THE FAR
W ATLC NEAR 32N74W TO OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA BUT THIS FEATURE IS
MAINLY DRY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE UPPER TROUGH IS LIFTING NE BUT THE BAND OF
SHOWERS ALONG THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE AS THE FRONT
PUSHES SE EXTENDING FROM 32N48W TO PUERTO RICO BY THRU AFTERNOON
THEN WEAKENING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL ATLC...BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
N BETWEEN 40W-70W WITH MOST OF THE UPSTREAM MOISTURE STREAMING N
OF THE AREA. RESULTING PATTERN IS MAINLY DRY AS MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE CREATES STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. THE ONLY CLOUDINESS/
WEATHER OF NOTE LIES ALONG THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT
ORIGINATING OVER THE E ATLC FROM A DEEP LAYERED SYSTEM SE OF THE
AZORES. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA FROM A TRIPLE POINT
NEAR 32N22W TRAILING SW ALONG 25N29W TO 22N37W THEN DISSIPATING
TO 22N51W. A NARROW BAND OF OVERCAST CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS LIES WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF FRONT. AN 993 MB OCCLUDED
LOW CENTER JUST N OF THE AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE AND WEAKEN
REACHING 31N24W THIS EVENING. WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL TRIAL
THROUGH THE CANARY ISLANDS TO TO N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG THE PORTION
OF THE BOUNDARY N OF 25N INCLUDING THE CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
WALLACE


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