[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011149
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE 01 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N7W 2N11W 1N21W ALONG THE EQUATOR
FROM 28Q-40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 45W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150
NM OF THE AXIS FROM 29W-38W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 4N44W TO JUST INLAND
OVER BRAZIL NEAR 2N50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND WEST ATLANTIC...
POWERFUL NOR'EASTER CONTINUES TO MOVE NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE AREA JUST
W OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N66W SW ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS AND THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO OVER W CUBA NEAR 23N79W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180/200 NM ALONG THE
FRONT NE OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS WITH OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 200 NM S AND WITHIN 100 NM W OF THE
FRONT TO OVER W CUBA. A COUPLE OF OTHER WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE
MOVING ACROSS THE W ATLC AND GULF BEHIND THE FRONT...THE FIRST
BEING A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N76W ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO THE GULF TO NEAR
23N87W WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. SECOND
DISTURBANCE IS SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SE GEORGIA
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR CEDAR KEY ALONG 29N83W THE W
TO 27N87W. THE FIRST TROUGH IS USHERING IN COOLER AIR AND LOWER
DEW POINTS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG 88W PROVIDING THE UPPER
SUPPORT FOR STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE E
GULF N OF 25N E OF 85W. A SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 120 TO
140 KT IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS FROM ACROSS THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N60W.

CARIBBEAN...
RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER OVER THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES EXCEPT IN
THE FAR NW WHERE THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM OVER W ATLC ACROSS
W CUBA NEAR 23N79W INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO NEAR 16N88W.
OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE FRONT N OF 18N. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GENERALLY COVERS THE
AREA WITH BROAD AXIS FROM AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED ALONG THE COAST
OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N67W N ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO THE
CENTRAL/WESTERN ATLC AND CONTINUATION OF VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. A
WEAK LOW-LEVEL DISTURBANCE/TROUGH IS W OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
AND IS PRODUCING BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN
100 NM OF LINE FROM 12N59W ACROSS THE ISLANDS TO 19N64W.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC...
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 32N29W SW ALONG 26N35W
TO 23N45W THEN DISSIPATING TO 24N52W. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION AS UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT IS E OF THE FRONT WITH THE
BROAD UPPER TROUGH E OF THE FRONT EXTENDING ALONG 32N22W SW TO
12N43W. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150
NM E OF THE FRONT. THE TROPICS ARE DOMINATED BY STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR ALOFT
EXTENDING S OF 20N THUS ITCZ CONVECTION IS LIMITED WITH A LITTLE
UPPER SUPPORT.

$$
WALLACE


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net