[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 301700
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 KT.  A
BURST OF CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ DENOTES THE LOCATION OF THE
WAVE.  SW FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS SHOULD KEEP THE WAVE MOVING
RATHER SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF 12N20W.

CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W S OF 22N MOVING
W 10 KT.  THIS IS A LARGE AMPLITUDE WAVE THAT CAN EASILY BE
FOUND FROM CURVATURE IN THE LOW/MID CLOUDINESS.  THERE ARE
MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL SWIRLS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES..
NEAR 8N41W AND 12.5N34W.  COMPUTER MODELS GENERALLY MOVE THIS
WAVE SLOWLY WESTWARD FOR A FEW DAYS WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME
SORT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM AT 12.5N34W
SEEMS TO BE THE ONE TO WATCH FOR NOW AS IT HAS THE BEST TURNING
AND CONVECTION.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 9N-14N
BETWEEN 30W-41W.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT.. THIS WAVE SHOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE WINDS UP TO 25 KT NEAR AND NE OF THE
WAVE AXIS AS IT PROGRESSES SLOWLY W.

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE ABC ISLANDS TO PUERTO
RICOA MOVING W 15 KT.  LARGE 24 HOUR PRESSURE RISES ARE NOTED IN
THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH PRESSURES UP TO 3.7 MB HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME.  THIS IS A STRONG WAVE WITH A V-SHAPE ON
SATELLITE AND WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
16.5N-PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 66W-71W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 12N30W 7N46W 10N62W.
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N-13N E OF 25W AND FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN
40W-50W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN
28W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE REMNANTS OF BRET ARE NOW FAR INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL SIERRA
MOUNTAINS PRODUCING ISOLATED AREA OF HEAVY RAIN.  OTHERWISE A
MID/UPPER LOW NEAR 28N90W DIVIDES THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LOW.. CONDITIONS ARE WETTER THAN
AVERAGE WITH PLENTY OF DEEP-LEVELED MOISTURE IN THE E GULF ALONG
WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CAROLINAS THRU
NE FLORIDA PROVIDING ADDITIONAL UPPER SUPPORT FOR TSTMS.  TO THE
NW OF THE LOW... MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS KEEPING A LID ON
MOST CONVECTION WITH BELOW-AVERAGE DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED
ALONG THE TX/LOUISIANA COASTS.  FARTHER SE...UPPER RIDGING IS
ORIENTED FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO E MEXICO.  A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE CAROLINAS TO
NE FLORIDA AND IS LIKELY TO SHIFT DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER
FLORIDA TO THE E COAST...AND REMAIN THAT WAY THRU SAT AS THE
TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN STATIONARY.  NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE IS LIKELY OVER THE W GULF WITH THE NORTHERN END OF A
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN POSSIBLY ENHANCING FAR S
FLORIDA CONVECTION FOR SUN.

CARIBBEAN...
THE EYE IS IMMEDIATELY TURNED TO A LARGE AREA OF TSTMS IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN SEA... A RESPONSE FROM A STRONG AREA OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE ALONG WITH THE NEARBY ITCZ.  THE OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS BEING FORCED BY A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING
HISPANIOLA.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-
PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 66W-73W.  MID/UPPER TROUGH LIES FROM SE CUBA
TO THE N COAST OF HONDURAS WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE NEAR
AND NW OF THE TROUGH AXIS.  BUILDING MID/UPPER RIDGE IS NEAR
GUADELOUPE WITH ELY WINDS IN THE UPPER LEVELS APPROACHING THE
ABC ISLANDS.  THESE ELY WINDS ARE CARRYING DRIER AIR ALOFT WHICH
IS FILTERING INTO THE LESSER ANTILLES.  THE ITCZ IS NEAR
TRINIDAD TODAY WITH CONVECTION ENHANCED IN THE FAR S WINDWARD
ISLANDS.  INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IN
THE CENTRAL ATLC IS EXPECTED IN THE LESSER ANTILLES ON MON.

ATLANTIC...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA
BEACH NE BEYOND 32N74W AND IS SPREADING BROKEN HIGH CLOUDINESS
OVER THE W ATLC. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE 29N81W TO BEYOND 32N78W.  AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS E OF BERMUDA THROUGH 32N58W SW ACROSS THE S
BAHAMAS INTO THE CARIBBEAN WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING N OF
25N ALIGNED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 52W-60W ALONG WITH OVERCAST
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS.  FARTHER E... UPPER RIDGING CONTROLS THE
CENTRAL ATLC WITH A MID/UPPER LOW FORMING NEAR 31N29W.  THIS LOW
DOESN'T SEEM TO BE AFFECTING MUCH AT THE SURFACE WITH NO WEATHER
OTHER THAN A FEW CLOUDS.   THE TROPICAL ATLC IS DIVIDED BY A
WEAK MID/UPPER TROUGH ALONG 20N32W TO 9N46W WITH VERY DRY AIR IN
THE MID/UPPER LEVELS W OF THE TROUGH AXIS.  THE TYPICAL AFRICAN
HIGH IS A BIT SUPPRESSED FROM AVERAGE BUT THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM SENEGAL TO 13N36W WITH CONSIDERABLE MORE MOISTURE IN THE E
ATLC.  AT THE SURFACE...1026 MB HIGH IS NEAR 33N38W WITH
SEASONABLE TRADES OBSERVED THROUGHOUT THE AREA.

$$
BLAKE

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