[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 301048
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E TROPICAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W/20W S OF 17N MOVING W
10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY W OF THE
WAVE WITHIN 60/75 NM OF 12.5N FROM 18W-22W.

CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 19N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD BUT WELL-DEFINED WAVE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITH LOW LEVEL CURVATURE N OF THE WAVE WHERE THE
ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NEAR AND S OF THE ITCZ AXIS.

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N59W ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES ALONG 16N65W TO 7N66W MOVING NW 10-15 KT. SHARP
LOW-LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED OFF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS W OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN THE
WAVE AXIS AND 70W IS PRIMARILY THE RESULT OF STRONG UPPER
DIFFLUENCE TO THE E OF A SHARP UPPER TROUGH ROTATING W TOWARDS
JAMAICA. SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 130 NM SE OF THE N PORTION OF THE WAVE FROM
20N-22N.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N15W 12N23W 10N35W 8N45W 10N62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S
OF THE AXIS FROM 41W-48W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 30W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
T.D. BRET MOVED INLAND YESTERDAY AND IS DISSIPATING OVER THE
CENTRAL SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. THE PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH IS
OVER NW GULF FROM 28N91W TO NE OF THE REMNANTS OF BRET NEAR
24N98W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE E GULF AND
FLORIDA...WHICH CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE AREA NOW E OF 85W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 45 NM
ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA FROM S OF FORT MYERS TO TAMPA. THE
AREA IS DOMINATED BY AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
COAST OF MEXICO JUST N OF TAMPICO NE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW GULF IS SLOWLY SHIFTING E AND NOW
EXTENDS FROM S ALABAMA TO 26N93W. THE GULF SHOULD DRY OUT SLOWLY
THRU SAT AND SUN AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA
INTO THE W ATLC.

CARIBBEAN...
NARROWING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL/
WESTERN ATLC THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE OVER JAMAICA TO THE
GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 15N89W. THIS FEATURE IS LEAVING THE NW
CARIBBEAN MOSTLY DRY INCLUDING CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. MOISTURE IS RAPIDLY ENCROACHING ON THESE AREAS AS
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT W. STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO THE
SE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE S CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION COVERING AN AREA WITHIN 150 NM OF
LINE FROM 14N82W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W INCLUDING
LAKE MARACAIBO. THIS IS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN. DRIER AIR HAS BEGUN TO MOVE IN
FROM THE TROPICAL/CENTRAL ATLC OVER THE E CARIBBEAN...BUT THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER WET FOR THE
WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA
BEACH NE BEYOND 32N74W AND IS SPREADING BROKEN HIGH CLOUDINESS
OVER THE W ATLC WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE 29N79W-TO BEYOND 32N77W. AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N60W SW ACROSS THE S BAHAMAS INTO
THE CARIBBEAN WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N57W ALONG
26N66W TO CUBA NEAR 22N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 300 NM SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF
24N. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY BRISK EASTERLY
TRADES DUE TO A BROAD AREA OF HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE E
ATLC N OF 20N E OF 60W. LARGE UPPER HIGH IS JUST E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES NEAR 16N60W WHICH IS SUPPRESSING THE DEEPEST EASTERLIES
S OF ABOUT 10N. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NE ATLC N OF
23N BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND 45W WITH A CLOSED LOW NEAR
31N28W.

$$
WALLACE



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