[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 300511
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRET IS CENTERED NEAR 22.3N 98.5W OR NEAR
TAMPICO MEXICO AT 30/0300 UTC MOVING NNW AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS
EXPOSED JUST INLAND ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO WHILE THE MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION IS OVER THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS TO THE
WEST. CONVECTION IS WEAKENING TO A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS OF 23.100W. FLASH
FLOODING REMAINS A CONCERN OVER THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AND
NEARBY COASTAL RIVERS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E TROPICAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE WAS RELOCATED ALONG 18W/19W S OF
17N BASED ON UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM DAKAR. THE WAVE IS MOVING W
10-15 KT. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF THE ITCZ AXIS.


CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W S OF 19N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD BUT WELL-DEFINED WAVE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITH LOW LEVEL CURVATURE N OF THE WAVE WHERE THE
ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY S OF THE ITCZ AXIS.

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N58W ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES ALONG 16N63W TO 9N65W MOVING NW 15 KT. THE ACTUAL
POSITION OF THE WAVE IS DECEIVING GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD TSTMS
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WATERS. HOWEVER...THE SHARP LOW-LEVEL
CURVATURE IS OBSERVED OFF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS W OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN THE WAVE AXIS
AND 71W IS PRIMARILY THE RESULT OF STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO
THE E OF A SHARP UPPER TROUGH ROTATING W TOWARDS JAMAICA. SMALL
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM SE OF THE N PORTION OF THE WAVE FROM 20N-22N.

TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING CENTRAL AMERICA IS NO LONGER IN THE ATLC
BASIN.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N15W 12N21W 13N29W 8N40W 8N53W
13N61W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM 41W-59W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN FROM 4N-13N
BETWEEN 16W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
T.D. BRET MOVED INLAND DURING THE DAY NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE E MEXICAN COAST. A
PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH IS NOW OVER NW GULF WITH A WEAK 1011
MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N95W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER
THE E GULF AND FLORIDA...WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE AREA E OF
90W. LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM NEAR TAMPA
FLORIDA TO 27N85W. THE AREA IS DOMINATED BY AN ELONGATED UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR VERA CRUZ NE
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW GULF IS
SLOWLY SHIFTING E AND IS HELPING TO ADVECT MOISTURE FROM BRET
OVER THE E GULF. THE AREA SHOULD DRY OUT SLOWLY THRU SAT AND SUN
AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE W ATLC.

CARIBBEAN...
A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM
HAITI SW TO NEAR 15N85W. THIS FEATURE IS LEAVING THE NW
CARIBBEAN MOSTLY DRY INCLUDING CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS...BUT MOISTURE IS RAPIDLY
ENCROACHING ON THESE AREAS AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT W.
STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO THE E IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE. DRIER AIR HAS BEGUN TO
MOVE IN FROM THE TROPICAL/CENTRAL ATLC OVER THE E CARIBBEAN...
BUT THE W CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER WET UNTIL THE
FIRST OF THE NEXT WEEK.

ATLANTIC...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NE
BEYOND 32N74W AND IS SPREADING BROKEN HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER THE W
ATLC WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE BAHAMAS
NORTHWARD W OF 77W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N61W SW TO
THE S BAHAMAS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N58W ALONG
25N65W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 250
NM SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY BRISK EASTERLY TRADES DUE TO A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE E ATLC N OF 18N E OF 60W. LARGE UPPER
HIGH IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 17N50W WHICH IS
SUPPRESSING THE DEEPEST EASTERLIES S OF ABOUT 10N. A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH IS OVER THE NE ATLC N OF 20N BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS
AND 45W WITH A CLOSED LOW DROPPING SLOWLY S NEAR 31N29W.

$$
WALLACE


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