[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 291818
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM BRET HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. IT MADE LANDFALL NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO. TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BRET CENTER WAS NEAR 21.0N 97.6W AT 29/1500 UTC...
20 KM WEST OF TUXPAN MEXICO. IT IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST
7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF 21N98W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS FROM 20N TO 25N
BETWEEN 94W AND 98W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HEAVY RAINS MAY FALL
IN THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF MEXICO. TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRET
FINDS ITSELF UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO JUST NORTHWEST OF THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND BEYOND. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL SHEAR AXIS OR REALLY NARROW AND SHARP TROUGH RUNS THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TO CENTRAL
MEXICO NEAR 24N102W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTHWEST
OF THIS LOUISIANA-TO-MEXICO LINE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
IS WITHIN 200 TO 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 22W/23W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ.

ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE...NOT INCLUDED IN THE LAST
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...ALONG 34W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ.

ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE...JUST EAST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...
ALONG 19N58W 14N60W 9N60W...AFTER PASSING BARBADOS...MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT.

WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 85W/86W SOUTH OF
13N...FROM HONDURAS SOUTHWARD...MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 95W/96W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.
NO DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ 13N16W 12N21W...11N23W 8N34W 7N40W 7N50W 9N63W.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 11N16W 9N22W
11N30W 8N35W 5N43W...AND FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 51W AND 56W.
WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES...DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION...
AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM NORTHEASTERN
SOUTH AMERICA TO 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRET IS OVER LAND...FORECAST TO HAVE
DISSIPATED BY 01 JULY AT 0000 UTC. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF NEAR
28N95W TO 22N97W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...ABOUT WHICH DETAILS
HAVE BEEN PROVIDED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION...RUNS FROM
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA BEYOND THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE
WITHIN AT LEAST 200 TO 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE IS PUSHING
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 75W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR
24N65W TO 17N78W TO THE BORDER OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...NEAR
EASTERN EL SALVADOR IN CENTRAL AMERICA. NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...WESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF
15N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE HAS POKED ITS WAY INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...EAST OF
70W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY STRONGER IN SOME SPOTS...ARE TO THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...IN THE AREA
BOUNDED BY THE POINTS 11N60W 15N71W 20N63W 11N60W. THIS AREA
COVERS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER NEAR TRINIDAD TO THE EAST
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 180 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PUERTO
RICO...TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH RUNS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR
32N62W TO 24N65W...TO 17N78W IN THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N58W 23N68W TO 20N73W AT THE COAST
OF NORTHWESTERN HAITI. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
28N55W 26N61W 24N69W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE FLOWS INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF
20N WEST OF 70W. THIS FLOW IS MEETING UP WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP LAYER
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CENTRAL AMERICA TROUGH. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR SURROUNDS THE TROUGH FROM 16N TO 28N...FROM THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 70W NEAR HISPANIOLA
AND 85W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 30N20W TO 22N29W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ON EITHER SIDE OF THE 28N58W
20N73W SURFACE TROUGH. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 32N31W.

$$
MT


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