[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290621 RRA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM BRET IS CENTERED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR
20.4N 96.4W AT 29/0600 UTC OR ABOUT 75 NM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MOVING WNW AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BRET IS MOVING ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE COAST FROM VERA CRUZ TO TAMPICO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W/21W S OF 16N MOVING W 10 KT.
WAVE HAS LOST SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM LAST NIGHT...BUT STILL HAS
A WELL DEFINED CURVATURE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF LINE 10N17W-9N22W.

CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 15W MOVING
W 10-15 KT. ANY CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO WITHIN THE ITCZ.

W TROPICAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W S OF 16N MOVING W
10-15 KT. WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM
10N-14N BETWEEN 55W-59W.

SW CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W/84W S OF 13N MOVING W
10-15 KT. AREA OF BROAD CURVATURE IS OBSERVED WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA S OF 13N W OF 77W
TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 10N25W 7N39W 8N60W. LARGE
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N
BETWEEN 27W-37W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 46W-50W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION
DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITHIN 200 NM OF THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURE ABOVE. SHARP NARROW MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO OVER LOUISIANA. BROAD
MID/UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W COAST OF MEXICO ACROSS TEXAS
INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS IS LEAVING THE FAR NW GULF
UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR FOR ALL OF TEXAS AND W
LOUISIANA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS MOISTURE LADEN WITH A
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 23N92W AND
A STRONG RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE ACROSS N FLORIDA INTO THE W
ATLC BEYOND 32N79W. T.S. BRET IS UNDER THE S END OF THE RIDGE
AXIS THAT EXTENDS TO OVER MEXICO NEAR 18N95W. THIS IS PRODUCING
A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SE OF A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE N GULF NEAR 30N88W TO N OF T.S.
BRET NEAR 22N95W ...COVING THE AREA INCLUDING FLORIDA AND CUBA.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WESTWARD TOWARDS THE W
GULF COAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF IS LEAVING THE W CARIBBEAN
UNDER NE WINDS WITH SOME OF THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FILTERING
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF
16N W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. WEAKENING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS IN
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N75W WITH A UPPER TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM HISPANIOLA SW TO 12N77W. THIS IS LEAVING MOST THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED LOW LEVEL
SHOWERS N OF 18N W OF HAITI. A SOUTH-CENTRAL ATLC MID/UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES...THUS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION S OF 18N E OF 67W TO OVER THE ISLANDS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE GULF EXTENDS ACROSS N FLORIDA INTO
THE W ATLC BEYOND 32N79W. THIS LEAVES N TO NE FLOW OVER THE W
ATLC W OF 70W. THUS...ONLY HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE AREA S OF 30N. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 30N W OF 77W. AT THE SURFACE...
WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH BERMUDA SW TO OVER THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS. MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS JUST N OF THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
33N56W WITH CYCLONIC FLOW N OF 27N FROM 50W-68W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 28N55W ALONG 25N61W
TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM W OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 22N-27N. MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 20N47W WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW S OF 30N
FROM 38W TO THE AREA NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 18N W OF 59W TO OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE ATLC NEAR
THE MADEIRA ISLANDS SW ALONG 25N26W TO 15N38W. AT THE SURFACE...
BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 18N E OF 50W. THIS IS THE
LEAVING THE E HALF OF THE ATLC RELATIVELY SHOWER FREE.

$$
WALLACE


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net