[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290025
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM BRET IS CENTERED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ABOUT 55
NM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO NEAR 19.9N 95.8W AT 29/0000 UTC MOVING
WNW AT 5 KT.  ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB.  MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.  SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.  BRET IS VERY CLOSE TO SHORE AND IS FORECAST
TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE MEXICAN COAST IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS.  A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FROM VERACRUZ TO TAMPICO.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-22N
BETWEEN 95W-98W.  TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STORM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING
WEST 10 KT. A WELL DEFINED WAVE HAS PUSHED OFF THE AFRICAN
COAST.  CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS MOSTLY W OF THE AXIS FROM
7N-14N BETWEEN 19W-24W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W SOUTH OF 14W MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT.  CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ.

ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W/54W SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS IS A WELL DEFINED WAVE. CURRENT
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A CYCLONIC SWIRL NEAR 10N54W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 54W-58W.
FURTHER W SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 59W-61W.

SW CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT.  THIS WAVE IS PRODUCING A DISTINCT AREA OF
CONVECTION OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM
5N-12N BETWEEN 77W-83W.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 12N20W 7N40W 7N60W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 26W-33W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN
33W-38W...AND FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 41W-44W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 44W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURE ABOVE. IN ADDITION A SURFACE TROUGH HAS
MOVED N INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WITH A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE.  THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ALABAMA NEAR 30N89W
TO THE SW GULF NEAR 22N95W.  PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN
85W-91W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM
18N-21N BETWEEN 89W-92W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER FLORIDA FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 81W-83W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
NEAR 21N93W TO BEYOND N FLORIDA AT 31N82W.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE GULF EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE TEXAS
COAST.  EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE NW TOWARDS THE TEXAS
COAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT BRET TO MAKE
LANDFALL.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE.  IN ADDITION...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA FROM 17N-22N
BETWEEN 77W-83W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER HAITI FROM 18N-20N
BETWEEN 72W-74W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
VENEZUELA AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 61W-64W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR
HISPANIOLA AT 17N70W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS BETWEEN 60W-80W.  NE
FLOW DUE TO RIDGING IS W OF 80W.  EXPECT ALL SURFACE FEATURES TO
MOVE W WITH THE TRADES.  EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION TO ALSO SHIFTS W TO NEAR JAMAICA IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF BERMUDA NEAR 36N66W.  A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N54W TO
19N64W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN
60W-63W.  1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 36N28W
PRODUCING WLY FLOW FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 15W-50W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... RIDGE IS W OF 80W.  CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
NEAR 31N56W.  RIDGE IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 30W-50W.  TROUGH IS OVER
THE CANARY ISLANDS N OF 25N BETWEEN 10W-30W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
IS OVER W AFRICA AND THE E ATLANTIC S OF 25N AND E OF 30W.

$$
FORMOSA



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