[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281054
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E TROPICAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W S OF 16N MOVING W 10
KT. STRONG HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE 8N15W-13N19W.

CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W S OF 14W MOVING
W 10 KT. WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION IS NOTED ON THE FIRST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
75 NM OF 8N FROM 34W-40W.

W TROPICAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 15N MOVING W
10-15 KT. WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED
ESPECIALLY ON THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF 11N FROM
46W-56W.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W/78W S OF 16N MOVING
W 10 KT. WEAK LOW LEVEL V-SHAPED CURVATURE OBSERVED. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 10N TO INLAND OVER
COLOMBIA AND PANAMA.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IS NO LONGER IN THE ATLC
BASIN.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N18W 9N28W 7N34W 9N48W 8N61W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 250 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM 21W-30W...WITHIN 150 NM OF THE
AXIS 31W-40W...AND WITHIN 350 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM 40W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WET WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE E HALF OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING ACROSS THE GULF TO
INLAND OVER THE SE UNITED STATES. NARROW MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM LOUISIANA SW THROUGH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR 27N94W TO THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 22N98W. THIS IS SUPPORTING
DRY AIR THUS LEAVING THE AREA RELATIVELY CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NE ACROSS FLORIDA TO OVER E
SOUTH CAROLINA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE N GULF NEAR
28N90W S TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE ARE GENERATING LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE GULF W OF 91W INCLUDING ALL OF
FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE S OF 23N FROM 91W-97W. THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH ITS
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DUE TO THE MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF...THERE IS NORTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE GULF W OF 77W. THIS IS FORCING REMNANT SHOWERS S
INTO THE W CARIBBEAN MAINLY N OF 20N W OF 77W. A CUT-OFF UPPER
LOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N69W WITH A MID/UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM NE OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N65W SW TO INLAND OVER
VENEZUELA NEAR 11N71W. THIS IS GENERALLY LEAVING THE E CARIBBEAN
DRY WITH ONLY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS N OF 15N E OF 76W AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC W OF
76W. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT COVERS THE AREA N OF 21N
BETWEEN 52W-75W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N58W AND A
SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION EXTENDS THROUGH 32N54W SW TO THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS. DRY UPPER AIR IS LEAVING MOST OF THE AREA SHOWER
FREE EXCEPT IN THE FAR W ATLC WHERE REMNANT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF 77W. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 29N
FROM 52W-59W...WITHIN 120 NM 22N FROM 61W-66W...AND WITHIN 9- NM
OF LINE FROM 29N53W-22N59W. MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS IN THE
EASTERN/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 18N45W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N
TO BEYOND 32N42W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE AREA FROM 35W-53W. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE
E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 35W WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 25N28W. THE AREA
E OF 50W IS RELATIVELY SHOWER FREE. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM W OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N69W SW TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND A SECOND RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 20N E
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.

$$
WALLACE



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