[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280509
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED ALONG 16W/17W S OF 16N MOVING W
10-15 KT. STRONG WAVE COMING OFF THE AFRICAN COAST. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF AFRICA FROM 9N-13N WITH A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N-18N E OF 19W TO
WELL INLAND OVER AFRICA AND WITHIN 60 NM OF 9N FROM 13W-19W.

CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 14W MOVING
W 10-15 KT. WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION IS NOTED ON INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANY CONVECTION IS CONFINED S OF THE ITCZ
AXIS.

W TROPICAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 15N MOVING W
10-15 KT. WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED
ESPECIALLY ON THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN
75 NM OF 12N FROM 49W-53W.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W S OF 16N MOVING W
10-15 KT. WEAK LOW LEVEL V-SHAPED CURVATURE OBSERVED ESPECIALLY
ON THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION
IS INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND E PANAMA.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IS ALONG 89W/90W S OF 17N
MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS MOVING OUT OF THE ATLC BASIN. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S
OF 18N W OF 86W.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N18W 9N30W 8N42W 7N60W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM S OF
THE AXIS FROM 31W-35W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION DOT THE AREA WITHIN 350 NM S OF THE
AXIS FROM 20W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WET WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE E HALF OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NE FROM THE E PACIFIC
ACROSS S MEXICO. NARROW MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
LOUISIANA SW THROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 27N94W TO THE
MEXICAN COAST NEAR 22N98W. THIS IS SUPPORTING DRY AIR THUS
LEAVING THE AREA RELATIVELY CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE. THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF IS UNDER A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NE ACROSS THE UPPER FLORIDA PENINSULA TO
ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE NE GULF NEAR 28N85W SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W
AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE ARE GENERATING LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE GULF W OF 91W
INCLUDING ALL OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS IN THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N FROM 91W-96W. THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH
ITS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DUE TO THE MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF...THERE IS NORTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE GULF W OF 73W. THIS IS FORCING REMNANT SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S INTO THE W CARIBBEAN MAINLY N OF 18N W
OF 76W. A LINE OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING IN THE S CARIBBEAN WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM N OF E
PANAMA NEAR 9N77W TO NICARAGUA NEAR 11N84W. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW
IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N66W WITH A MID/UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM NE OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 21N63W SW TO INLAND OVER
VENEZUELA NEAR 11N69W. THIS IS GENERALLY LEAVING THE E CARIBBEAN
DRY WITH ONLY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS N OF 16N E OF 70W AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC W OF
74W. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT COVERS THE AREA N OF 21N
BETWEEN 52W-74W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N58W AND A
SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION EXTENDS THROUGH 32N53W SW TO NE OF
PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N63W. DRY UPPER AIR IS LEAVING MOST OF THE
AREA SHOWER FREE EXCEPT IN THE FAR W ATLC WHERE REMNANT SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF 77W. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 24N-30N WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND S OF
24N WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 30N FROM 51W-55W. MID/UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS IN THE EASTERN/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 19N45W WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N TO BEYOND 32N44W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA FROM 37W-52W. MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 37W WITH AN UPPER
LOW NEAR 26N30W. THE AREA E OF 50W IS RELATIVELY SHOWER FREE. AT
THE SURFACE...A WEAK RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA SW TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND A SECOND RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 20N E
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.

$$
WALLACE


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